CAPE CORAL, Fla. — It's probably not something you want to hear right now, but we are rounding the corner and only a few months out from another hurricane season.
One of the major hurricane outlooks released every year comes from Colorado State University. And the guy behind it all, was just at Florida Gulf Coast University on Thursday talking to students.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ANDREW SHIPLEY SPOKE WITH COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY’S DR. PHIL KLOTZBACH ABOUT THE UPCOMING HURRICANE SEASON.
"Already starting to gear up for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season," said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University.
While we are still picking the pieces from Helene and Milton, Dr. Klotzbach says the team at Colorado state are already drafting the 2025 forecast.
"Typically for our early April forecast, the predictors that we will use might be fairly spread out from the Atlantic Ocean," said Dr. Klotzbach.
One reason, the current La Niña in the Pacific.
"Normally when you have a La Niña, it tends to reduce levels of vertical wind shear in the Atlantic," said Dr. Klotzbach.
Less wind shear means less breakup of tropical development in the summer. Klotzbach says with our warming planet, La Niñas are starting to become more the norm.
"So, with that trend toward La Niña, that tends to create more conductive wind conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic " said Dr. Klotzbach.
But also, less storms in the Pacific. But the storms that do form as generally stronger.
"If you look at the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes and typhoons globally, that number since 1990 is about flat," said Dr. Klotzbach. “But if you have fewer hurricanes, and the number of 4s and 5s is flat, that means the percentage of those storms hitting 4s and 5s has gone up."
Klotzbach says the recent trend of La Niña goes against what many climate models are predicting.
"That is one of the big things we need to get a hold of, because it matters a lot for hurricanes, typhoons, global temperature trends," said Dr. Klotzbach. “All these things really hinge on this La Nina, El Nino like future."
As for this upcoming hurricane season, Dr. Klotzbach says it is too early to say, but his team will be releasing their forecast on April 3.
