PUNTA GORDA, Fla. — On Thursday, ATTOM, a curator of real estate analytics released its latest Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting housing markets around the US most vulnerable to declines, based on key data from the fourth quarter of 2024.
The report showed the usual suspects like California, Illinois and New York having the highest concentrations of most at risk markets, but there were a few surprises, Charlotte County coming in uncomfortably high.
In fact, it was in line with some of the Washington DC areas. In Florida, Charlotte County came in first. Why?
The report looked at affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment and who was most exposed to potential fallbacks.
Charlotte County seemed to have all the markers of those declines.
UNDERWATER MORTGAGES:
In the report, ATTOM found, Charlotte County has one of the highest underwater rates at 14%.
The other counties with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were Pasco County, FL (15.8 percent underwater); Baltimore City/County, MD (15.3 percent); Orleans Parish, LA (15.3 percent); Tangipahoa Parish, LA (14 percent).
FORECLOSURES:
The highest foreclosure-case rates in those 50 counties were in Charlotte County (Punta Gorda), FL (one in 198 properties facing possible foreclosure); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ (one in 484); Kaufman County, TX (outside Dallas) (one in 562); Madera County, CA (outside Fresno) (one in 631) and Shasta County (Redding), CA (one in 664).
AFFORDABILITY:
Since the pandemic the prices of homes in Charlotte County have skyrocketed, but so has property insurance and property taxes. Wage growth in that area has not kept up.
According to the last US Censusthere were 123,504 housing units in Charlotte County in 2023, the owner occupancy rate of those units was actually pretty high at 83%. The median value was $291,000. But if you look at the median household income, it was $66,154, the per capita income was $40,603. Not enough to afford an average priced home in Punta Gorda, even with a sizable down-payment.
According to ATTOM, it's a worrying trend across the country, "major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos were considered seriously unaffordable in 28 of the 50 counties deemed most vulnerable to market drop-offs in the fourth quarter of 2024. That means those expenses consumed at least 43 percent of average local wages. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the fourth quarter required 34 percent of average local wages, a level also above commonly accepted affordability benchmarks."
Could there be help on the way? Mortgage rates did drop to a 2025 low on Thursday, according to Freddie Mac,30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.63%,the refinance share of market mortgage applications released this week reached nearly 44%, the highest since mid-December.
But following the daily stock market ups and downs can be dizzying. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday, the US Economy is in "incredible flux". He suggested it is unlikely that the Fed will have enough clarity to move on interest rates before late spring or summer.
In the meantime, local real estate agents FOX 4 spoke with say there are a lot of deals out there. And potential price reductions, In fact, according to realtor.com there are 1,159 price reduced homes right now in Punta Gorda.
And as we have previously reported, there was an influx of "AS IS" properties on the market after a particularly rough hurricane season.
AS IS PROPERTIES HIT THE MARKET:
Now, we head into the peak buying season, before we hit another hurricane season, and only time will tell what will happen in the Charlotte County housing market.
“Local housing markets fluctuate in and out of the lists of areas more or less exposed to declines from quarter to quarter, but some regions consistently rank among the most vulnerable due to significant gaps in key market indicators,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “This report isn’t meant to raise red flags or predict endless gains—it simply highlights counties experiencing more or less pressure that could influence home values, foreclosures, or homeowner equity.”
