ESTERO, Fla. — We all know it has been a busy hurricane season, from Debby to Helene to even Milton. Thankfully, with a few days left in the season, things are quieting down across the tropics.
On Thursday, Fox 4 Meteorologist Andrew Shipley got the opportunity at Florida Gulf Coast University to speak to Dr. Chris Landsea, from the National Hurricane Center. Dr. Landsea was at the university to speak with students and the community about hurricanes this past season, how forecasting hurricanes is changing, and what these storms could be doing in the future.
“Even though we have a pretty good track record of where they are going to, you can’t get rid of the hurricanes,” said Dr. Landsea. “You can’t stop them from coming. So, you really have to do your best to prepare for them.”
Dr. Landsea has been with the National Hurricane Center for nearly 20 years and is currently the Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch.
And while Florida might feel like it's getting singled out lately, but Dr. Landsea says that is not the case. In fact, the Hurricane Center is still trying to figure out if there is forcing going on the atmosphere make a particular area more vulnerable in given year or if it is just purely random.
“We really don’t really understand those regionalizations,” said Dr. Landsea. “We have a better understanding of kind of the big picture of what makes it busy or quiet overall but knowing if particular state or part of a state is going to get hit, we have no idea until just a few weeks or just a few days in advance.”
But the forecast tracks for those storms have been continuing to improve. Dr. Landsea says the error on a 3-day forecast now down to about 100 miles. But forecasters could be reaching their limits of predictability.
“Certainly, we are going to work to make better track forecasts, and we will always do the best we can, but I suspect in the next 5 to 10 years we are going to reach a limit where we won’t improve much more,” said Dr. Landsea.
And while track forecasts have greatly improved, intensity and size forecasts have lagged.
“That is a big deal because that affects the overall rainfall, the wind impacts, and most importantly the storm surge,” said Dr. Landsea.
Storm surge. The trigger word for many in Southwest Florida as we are still recovering from Helene's and Milton's surge from just a few months ago as well as Ian’s two years ago. Unfortunately, Dr. Landsea expects the impacts of surge will increase as seas continue to rise.
“We have already seen about 1 inch per decade of sea level rise,” said Dr. Landsea. “And so, that is anticipated to get faster. So, by the end of this century we could see another 2 to 3 feet of sea level rise. And that is really difficult for places like Florida, especially Southwest Florida that is so flat.”
Another impact of climate change could be as much 20% more rainfall from tropical systems. But Dr. Landsea says climate change could also reduce the number of tropical systems we see every year.
“Even though there is more energy available to the hurricanes, because it is warmer waters and more moisture, the upper levels of the atmosphere warm up a lot faster,” said Dr. Landsea. “So, the amount of extra energy available to hurricanes only goes up a slight amount. Plus, if the computer models are right, there is going to be more of that wind shear that tears apart storms. So slightly stronger hurricanes, but perhaps less of them.”
But what about next summer? Dr. Landsea says just because Ian hit 2 years, doesn’t mean a similar storm can’t hit next year or in the next few years.
“I wish I could tell you, yea, you are not going to get hit Fort Myers, but the reality is we don’t know, and you better be ready.”
