FORT COLLINS, Col. — Colorado State University (CSU) released its first forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.
Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, citing the likely development of El Niño as a primary factor. Eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal, while Caribbean sea surface temperatures are near their long-term averages.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 13 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Of those, researchers expect six to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The team bases its forecasts on a statistical model, as well as four models that use a combination of statistical information and model output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici.
These models use 25–40 years of historical hurricane seasons and evaluate conditions including Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was a near-average season by most metrics, with slightly below-average levels of Accumulated Cyclone Energy.
The seasonal hurricane forecasts issued in 2022 by the Tropical Meteorology Project predicted somewhat more activity than was observed.
The season’s most significant continental US storm was Hurricane Ian, which made landfall in southwest Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, bringing tremendous wind and storm surge damage to southwest Florida as well as significant flooding to large swaths of the state.
As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane to make landfall for it to be an active season for them.
