CAPE CORAL, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center's goal, over the next few years, is to rethink how the public ultimately sees forecasts and models. They are working to use Ian's lessons to make future forecasts more accurate, and easier to understand.
One such impact the NHC is looking to improve forecasting and communication is storm surge. Hurricane Ian's storm surge here in Southwest Florida resulted in 41 deaths from drowning.
"Storm surge has the potential to kill the largest number of people in a single day on any the hazards as we saw during Ian last year."
Tropical storms and hurricanes all come with the threat of flooding rain, damaging winds, and tornados, but 90% of the fatalities come from storm surges.
NHC Director Dr. Michael Brennan says working on ways to better demonstrate surge, especially when 10 to 15 feet of surge in Fort Myers Beach is hard to visualize.
"That is a number that we think of as physical scientists,” said Dr. Brennan. “It means something to us, but people that live in an area, what does that mean? What does 10 to 15 feet of water...what is that going to do to my house? What is that going to look like — the landmark that I recognize in my city?"
NHC is working with social scientists on ways to better visualize the surge, with the hope that it increases awareness. They also are using a brand-new storm surge model this season.
"Helping us push real-time storm surge predictions out 72 hours in advance of the storm to get that critical lifesaving out to emergency managers and others who make those evacuation decisions," said Dr. Brennan.
In addition to a new surge model, NHC will also be using a next-generation hurricane-specific model called HAFS. The model will provide a 7-day forecast with improved tracked and intensity guidance.
Dr. Brennan says the hurricane center is also making strides in rapid intensification forecasts.
"We have made some of the most aggressive forecasts that ever been made in terms of initial intensity forecasts for storms like Ian and Ida in the past couple of years that have really set the expectation," said Dr. Brennan.
And this summer, NHC extended forecast outlooks even further from 5 to 7 days.
"So, it gives an additional heads up, that hey these as the systems the hurricane center is looking at," said Dr. Brennan.
While NHC and researchers around the country are looking to improve forecasts, the message is clear. It only takes one storm to be a busy season for you.
