CAPE CORAL, Fla. — It's official: the most aggressive hurricane forecast ever issued by federal forecasters is here. The 2024 hurricane season starts Saturday, June 1, and if forecasters are right, we could see as many as 13 hurricanes, with as many as 7 of them considered major.
All the ingredients are in place to have an active season,” said Dr. Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting an 85% chance of an above normal hurricane season.
"It is reason to be concerned of course but not alarmed,” said Dr. Graham. “We need to use this time to our advantage to really be prepared for hurricane season."
The expected above normal activity is due to several factors including near-record warm ocean temperatures and developing La Nina, reducing the Atlantic Trade Winds and lessening the wind shear.
"That shear is everything,” said Dr. Graham. “You can have all the ingredients you want to; you get wind shear it's going to knock the top off that storm. It impacts what the forecast is and of course the strength."
Water temperatures in the Atlantic are already running weeks ahead of schedule, more equivalent to what we typically see in august.
“You combine factors, so it’s not just one factor,” said Dr. Graham. “Everything has to come together to get a forecast like this. So, you h
ave all the energy in the oceans, we have an active African Monsoon. So, check, check. Don’t expect a whole lot of shear, check. So, you really look at all the different patterns and they all come together to make this big forecast.”
But what Dr. Graham has most concerned is rapid intensification.
“Every category 5 storm that made landfall in the United States in the last 100 years, was a tropical storm or less 3 days prior,” said Dr. Graham. “The big ones are fast. When you look at season like this, you could see strong storms with this forecast, the last 100 years, every one of these Cat 5s were tropical storms or less 3 days prior. Several didn’t even exist 3 days prior.”
Remember Ian? That hurricane took three days to go from a tropical storm to a category five right off our coast. This is why Dr. Graham says now is the time to prepare.
"You can't wait until the storm surfaces, because you might not have the time,” said Dr. Graham. “Then you are competing to get water, you are competing to get into long lines for evacuations, the traffic."
No matter how many storms happen, it only takes one. That's why you should be thinking about your preparations now. And have the brand-new fox 4 mobile app already installed on your phone, where we'll be helping you to be storm-ready with fox 4 all season long.
