UPDATE 11:00AM
Tropical Storm Alberto has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico. Alberto will move into Mexico and is no threat to Southwest Florida. The storm is very large and will have impacts far from the center bringing heavy rain, coastal flooding and wind concerns extending far north from center into Texas.
This is the latest a storm has formed since 2014 although is is slightly ahead of the long term average of June 20th.
ORIGINAL FORECAST 7:00AM
Here is your forecast for Tuesday, June 18th, 2024.
A dry, warm and breezy evening is underway. Overnight, we'll see gusts to 20 mph with a few passing clouds and lows in the mid to upper 70s.
Easterly winds gusting to 25 mph will tap into moisture from a tropical wave in the Atlantic. This will increase rain chances midday inland, progressing toward the coast for the afternoon and evening. Overall, rain chances will increase to 40% and remain scattered as we head through the rest of the week.
The tropical disturbance looks like nothing more than a rain maker for our state with the heaviest amounts currently expected for central and northern Florida. You can read more about this area below in the tropical outlook.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
The National Hurricane Center is watching several areas for development.
The first is Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located in the Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan. It is likely to become Tropical Storm Alberto as it moves west towards Mexico.
It will not pose a threat to the Florida but will bring several more days of heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of Texas starting Tuesday with totals of 8-12" expected and moderate coastal flooding along Texas' Gulf Coast.
In the same area as Potential Tropical Cyclone One, another low is forecast to develop this weekend and holds a 30% chance of further formation.
The final area, which will increase rain chances across Florida, is situated several hundred miles east of the Bahamas in the Atlantic, associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States on Friday. Right now that chance stands at 20%.
As it nears Florida, moisture driven by strong easterly winds will be transported into Southwest Florida, increasing our rain chances mid to late week.
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