FORECAST:
We are waking up to temperatures in the upper 70s this morning with an east breeze between 5-10mph. The radar is quiet this morning for Southwest Florida so your commute to school or work will be dry. Today will be hot and humid with highs in the mid 90s with an E breeze 5-10 mph and a 50% chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. You may notice the skies remain a little hazy today as Saharan Dust continues to move over the state.
An upper level low will move over the state Thursday and Friday and that will cause our rain chance to increase to 70% for Thursday and Friday with highs in the low 90s. Our rain chance will stay high over the weekend as well with a 60-70% chance of showers and storms.
TROPICAL UPDATE:
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three areas this morning for possible development.
The first is a broad area of low pressure that is expected to form over the western Caribbean in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend. This system is forecast to move into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday and some of the computer models have a possible hurricane impacting the Gulf coast of Texas or Louisiana.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 30 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days is high at 70 percent.
The second is a broad trough of low pressure that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 30 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days is high at 70 percent.
The third is a tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by this weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days is low near 30 percent.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
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