CSU has updated its hurricane forecast for the upcoming season and their thinking hasn't changed regarding the upcoming season. Forecasts call for an above-average season with 18 storms and 8 hurricanes, 4 of which will be major hurricanes. The primary factors will be a lack of El Nino leading to continued weak wind shear in the Atlantic Basin as well as warmer than normal water temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic. El Nino causes wind shear over the Atlantic to increase, leading to storms being ripped apart.
The current pattern of warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic water temperatures in the month of June correlates with a typical June pattern of sea surface temperatures that have featured above-normal tropical activity. Typically our most active months in SWFL for tropical systems are August, September, and October, with the latter seeing the most hurricane landfalls in South Florida. The important thing is to always be prepared.
