5:00PM Update, Friday, September 27, 2024:
Rain from post-tropical Helene extends from Missouri to the Northeast, producing flooding concerns across parts of the Appalachians and Ohio River Valley.
A high threat for rip currents and a high surf advisory remain in effect until 2pm Saturday. With this in mind and the lingering debris, you are encouraged to stay out of the water on Saturday.
All storm surge warnings, tropical storm warnings, and flood watches have been canceled.
Here were some of the peak wind gusts that we experienced across SWFL on Thursday.
Clean-up from feet of storm surge continues for our coastal communities. Five feet of surge were recorded from Collier to Lee to Sarasota counties.
11:00AM Update, Friday, September 27, 2024:
Helene continues to weaken as it rapidly moves north at 32 mph.
A slowdown in forward speed is expected soon, and the storm is forecast to stall over the Tennessee Valley tonight and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Helene is forecast to become extratropical later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 975 mb.
A weather station on Sassafras Mountain reported a sustained wind of 41 mph with a gust of 61 mph. A coastal observation at Murrells Inlet recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph with a gust of 46 mph.
5:00AM Update, Friday, September 27, 2024:
Helene has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm over central Georgia with winds of 70mph as it races off to the north at 30mph.
11:20PM Update, Thursday, September 26, 2024:
Based on NWS Doppler radar data, the eye of Helene made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend region around 11:10 PM just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, about 10 miles west-southwest of Perry.
Based on data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, the maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 140 mph and the minimum central pressure is 938 mb, 1 mb higher than that of Ian, which made landfall as a Cat. 4 two years ago Saturday, September 28.
Coastal flooding will remain the biggest threat. We've received reports of storm surge inundating roads from Manasota Key to Punta Gorda, downtown Fort Myers to the North Naples Bay North.
This was Coronado and Cape Coral Pkwy around 12:48am. Numerous roads are flooded in the south Cape, stranding vehicles. The Caloosahatchee will remain at least 4 feet above normal high tide until 3pm, which means high water levels will stay a concern into the afternoon. #flwx pic.twitter.com/F9xeZHbHnV
— Katie Walls (@KatieWallsTV) September 27, 2024
Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect through the day on Friday. At 11:43PM, the Tornado Watch was CANCELED for remaining SWFL counties.
9:00PM Update, Thursday, September 26, 2024:
Helene is slightly stronger as it approaches the Big Bend, now 90 miles south of Tallahassee. Sustained winds are up to 140 mph with higher gusts.
As it continues to pull away from SWFL, winds have shifted and are now onshore. As expected, we are seeing extensive storm surge flooding. The original forecast called for up to 5 ft of surge, but we are seeing areas closer to 6 ft at this time. Roads are impassable along our coastline, including downtown Fort Myers. PLEASE, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.
A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect through Saturday morning.
The Tornado Watch for Lee, Charlotte, DeSoto and Sarasota counties has been extended until 6am Friday as outer rain bands continue to produce the chance for brief, spin-up tornadoes, typically waterspouts moving onshore.
6:20PM Update, Thursday, September 26, 2024:
Helene is officially a Category 4 hurricane, taking aim at the Big Bend.
As it pulls away, our winds have shifted and are now out of the south, forecast to become southwesterly later tonight. THIS WILL WORSEN THE COASTAL FLOODING.
Coastal flooding extending as far inland as Downtown Fort Myers will remain a hazard overnight through Friday. Here's a look at water height forecasts above normal high tide.
Storm Surge Warnings are in effect through Saturday morning.
2:25 Update, Thursday, September 26, 2024:
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph. This makes Helene a dangerous category 3 major hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend this evening.
Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles. The center is currently about 160 miles west of Sanibel.
Here are the maximum wind gusts across SWFL in the last hour.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate across SWFL with the worst of the storm surge flooding expected this evening and overnight.
STORM SURGE UPDATE: Up to 5 feet of flooding WILL inundate our barrier islands and downtown Fort Myers. THE WORST WILL BE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. Please do NOT drive through flooded roadways. Storm surge will remain a problem throughout Friday into Saturday morning, especially at high tide.
A Tornado Watch is in effect until 8pm.
11AM Update, Thursday, September 26, 2024:
Helene is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph. A significant increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will make landfall in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 960 mb.
8AM Update, Thursday, September 26, 2024:
Helene has strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100mph sitting 320 miles southwest of Tampa.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles. he Key West Naval Air Station recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph and a wind gust of 55 mph. An observation in Sand Key recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a gust to 58 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 960 mb
5AM Update, Thursday, September 26, 2024:
Helene continues to strengthen and is expected do bring catastrophic winds and storm surge to the northeastern Gulf Coast.
Rain bands are already moving through Southwest Florida and will pick up in intensity and frequency as the day progresses. Isolated tornadoes in these rain bands will stay likely as Helene continues to pull north.
Helene is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph. This general motion is expected to continued with a significant increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and cross the Florida Big Bend coast this evening or early Friday morning. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles. The Key West Naval Air Station recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph and a wind gust of 64 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 966 mb.
11PM Update, Wednesday, September 25, 2024:
Helene is forecast to strengthen and become a Major Hurricane tomorrow before making landfall in the Big Bend tomorrow evening as a Category 4.
As of 11pm, maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a Cat. 4 major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening.
Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across Georgia, including Atlanta.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).
Storm surge of 3-5 ft are expected along the Southwest Florida Coast up to Englewood but will be higher northward.
The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft Tampa Bay...5-8 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
5PM Update, Wednesday, September 25, 2024:
Helene is gaining strength and forecast to become a Cat. 2 overnight. It's expected to continue strengthening in the Gulf, and is forecast to become a Cat. 4 at the time of landfall Thursday evening in the Big Bend, taking aim at Tallahassee.
Helene's outer rain bands are now moving inland. These rounds of rain will continue this evening with winds increasing after midnight.
Around midnight is when tropical storm conditions will begin along our coastal communities then overspread our area through the day on Thursday.
The worst impacts are expected on Thursday, especially midday, when Helene will be at its closest point to SWFL, about 180 miles offshore.
Here are the impacts expected in different counties and communities.
11AM Update, Wednesday, September 25, 2024:
Helene is officially a hurricane near the Yucatan Channel with sustained winds of 80 mph.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for ALL of the southern half of Florida (in red). Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Nature Coast and Big Bend area (in purple).
At 11am, Helene is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern United States Friday and Saturday.
IMPACTS TO SWFL: Tropical storm conditions will increase from the south to the north overnight into Thursday morning.
The worst of the winds in SWFL will arrive midday when Helene is at its closest, roughly 150-170 miles offshore. Winds will gradually improve late Thursday.
5AM Update, Wednesday, September 25, 2024:
Helene continues to strengthen near the Yucatan channel. Maximum sustained winds are at 65mph with higher gusts.
Helene is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. This motion should continue through this morning, followed by a general northward motion beginning later today and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on later today and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.
Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Helene will become an extremely large storm with a wind field between 400-500 miles across. Currently tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.
A Mexican Navy weather station at Isla Contoy recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph and a wind gust of 48 mph. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 985 mb.
11PM Update, Tuesday, September 24, 2024:
ALL Tropical Storm Watches have now been upgraded to Warnings, as of 11pm. This means that tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight or early Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.
Even though the center will be approximately 170 miles off our coastline, we will have tropical storm conditions Wednesday night into Thursday. Here are the threats we can expect.
5PM Update, Tuesday, September 24, 2024:
Tropical Storm Watches have been upgraded to Warnings (in red) for DeSoto, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee and coastal Collier counties. This means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warned area within the next 36 hours.
Lets review the Tuesday 5:00pm update from the Nat'l Hurricane Center together:
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect (in yellow) for inland Collier, Hendry and Glades counties.
Storm Surge Warnings are now in effect for our entire coastline, where 3-5 feet of flooding surge are expected, including Charlotte Harbor. If you live in an area along the coast, know your high tide times, and ensure your vehicles are parked in an elevated location. If you flooded in Debby and Idalia, you'll likely flood with this system as well.
The threat for storm surge will extend from Thursday morning through Saturday morning.
Tropical Storm Helene is slightly stronger with sustained winds of 50 mph. By tomorrow morning, it is forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane near Cancun as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.
The storm will quickly strengthen and is forecast to be a Category 3 hurricane by 8am Thursday morning. This is around the time that it will be at its closest point to SWFL, about 150 miles offshore.
Because of its size and magnitude, SWFL will begin feeling tropical storm conditions Wednesday night through Thursday. Conditions will improve Friday morning.
Localized flooding will be something to monitor closely, especially later on Thursday as the rainfall accumulates and swales fill. 4-6" of rain are expected along the coast with 1-3" inland.
11AM Update, Tuesday, September 24, 2024:
Tropical storm Helene has officially formed in the western Caribbean.
Helene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the system has acquired a well-defined center of circulation, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Continued strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles to the east of the center. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
5AM Update, Tuesday, September 24, 2024:
There have been updates to the watches and warning for Florida in the 5AM advisory:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass Florida southward to Bonita Beach Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.
The system is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph and this general motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb based on Air Force dropsonde data.
11PM Update, Monday, September 23, 2024:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Flamingo. Additional watches are expected tomorrow.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-3 ft
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued along the southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
At 11pm, maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
While SWFL won't take a direct hit, because of the size and strength of the storm, we will feel tropical storm conditions Wednesday night into Thursday.
The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the Big Bend region on Thursday. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Hurricane Watches and additional Storm Surge watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
5PM Update, Monday, September 23, 2024:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Dry Tortugas and the Lower Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Landfall is expected in the Big Bend area Thursday evening. Though landfall isn't expected in SWFL, we WILL feel impacts, specifically tropical storm conditions Wednesday night into Thursday.
While landfall is not currently forecast in SWFL, because of the anticipated size and strength of what will be #Helene, we WILL feel impacts.
— Katie Walls (@KatieWallsTV) September 23, 2024
WHEN? Wednesday night into Thursday
WHERE? All of SWFL, but especially along the coast. Stay tuned, as timing and threats could change. pic.twitter.com/2qJDhwL8Ls
2PM Update, Monday, September 23, 2024:
Hurricane Hunters are flying through Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine right now. That data will help us better know where the center is forming and environmental conditions into which it's traveling.
Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect for parts of Cuba and Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Landfall is NOT forecast in SWFL at this time, but considering the expected size of the system, SWFL will feel impacts, especially along the coast.
Those impacts include winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy rain which may lead to localized flooding and 2-4 feet of surge along the coast, leading to coastal flooding.
WHEN? Wednesday night into Thursday
11AM Update, Monday, September 23, 2024:
The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the western Caribbean. This is the first forecast cone on what will become Helene in the next day or two and eventually a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
The movement is estimated to be north at 6mph, but is uncertain given the lack of organization. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.
While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening.
8AM Update, Monday, September 23, 2024:
As of 8am, the likelihood of development this week has increased to 70% chance of next 2 days and 90% over the next 7 days.
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development is expected.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later this morning for portions of these areas. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
Exact impacts for Southwest Florida are impossible to know at this point. However, based on the latest thinking, which is a strong hurricane moving north through the Gulf of Mexico and riding several hundred miles off our coast, our weather would start to deteriorate Wednesday evening into Thursday as the storm makes its closest approach. Currently the computer models are showing a potential landfall along the panhandle east towards the big bend of the state, but until this system develops and a center develops for the computer models to grab a hold off it is impossible to know an exact landfall location or exact impacts for Southwest Florida.
8PM Update, Sunday, September 22, 2024:
As of 8pm, the likelihood of development this week has increased to 50% chance of next 2 days and 80% over the next 7 days. We are starting to see an area of low pressure start to form along the Central America Gyre in the Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.
2PM Update, Sunday, September 22, 2024:
As of 2pm, the likelihood of development this week has increased to 40% chance of next 2 days and 80% over the next 7 days. We are starting to see an area of low pressure start to form along the Central America Gyre in the Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.
8AM Update, Sunday, September 22, 2024:
As of 8am, the likelihood of development next week has increased to 10% chance of next 2 days and 70% over the next 7 days. We are starting to see an area of low pressure start to form along the Central America Gyre in the Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
8PM Update, Saturday, September 21, 2024:
As of 8pm, the likelihood of development next week has increased to 70%. No development is forecast over the weekend, but a broad area of low pressure should form during the next few days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
8AM Update, Saturday, September 21, 2024:
As of 8am, the likelihood of development next week has remained at 60%. No development is forecast over the weekend, but early to mid next week, an area of low pressure is forecast to form in northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
8PM Update, Friday, September 20, 2024:
As of 8pm, the likelihood of development next week has increased to 60%. No development is forecast over the weekend, but early to mid next week, an area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Once it does so, then we'll have a much better idea of its potential path and intensity once it enters the Gulf.
5PM Update, Friday, September 20, 2024:
We are keeping a close eye on what is expected to become our next tropical depression and eventually Tropical Storm Helene in the Gulf of Mexico.
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Based upon the latest data, we are expecting the system to become "Helene" in the Gulf of Mexico next week. BUT, until the low pressure itself develops, models will not have a solid grasp on its path or intensity. (So, be very weary of any deterministic forecast models you see floating around!)
Because the low has not formed yet, potential impacts in SWFL are yet to be determined. If it's closer to the SWFL coast, then we will feel greater impacts in terms of winds, coastal flooding and heavy rainfall late week. If the system stays in the western Gulf, we'll see little impact here.
This system bears close monitoring, especially as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
