8PM Update, Friday, September 20, 2024:
As of 8pm, the likelihood of development next week has increased to 60%. No development is forecast over the weekend, but early to mid next week, an area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Once it does so, then we'll have a much better idea of its potential path and intensity once it enters the Gulf.
5PM Update, Friday, September 20, 2024:
We are keeping a close eye on what is expected to become our next tropical depression and eventually Tropical Storm Helene in the Gulf of Mexico.
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Based upon the latest data, we are expecting the system to become "Helene" in the Gulf of Mexico next week. BUT, until the low pressure itself develops, models will not have a solid grasp on its path or intensity. (So, be very weary of any deterministic forecast models you see floating around!)
Because the low has not formed yet, potential impacts in SWFL are yet to be determined. If it's closer to the SWFL coast, then we will feel greater impacts in terms of winds, coastal flooding and heavy rainfall late week. If the system stays in the western Gulf, we'll see little impact here.
This system bears close monitoring, especially as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
