CAPE CORAL, Fla. — While it might not be everyone's favorite topic, hurricane season is now just two months away. But what might this season look like? According to Colorado State University, it could be another busy year.
Fox 4 Meteorologist Andrew Shipley spoke with research scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach about their forecast.
“So, we are forecasting an above normal hurricane season,” said Dr. Klotzbach.
This year Colorado State University is forecasting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes with 4 becoming major hurricanes, category 3 or higher.
“So, above normal but we are not forecasting the levels of activity of what we saw last year, where we had 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes,” said Dr. Klotzbach.
The outlook predicts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991–2020. By comparison, 2024’s hurricane activity was about 130% of the average season.
Fox 4 Certified Meteorologist Katie Walls breaks down the names you'll hear in 2025, and which were retired from 2024.
Dr. Klotzbach says this has to do with the El Nino South Oscillation likely being in the neutral to La Nina phase.
“And why that matters for hurricanes forming in the Atlantic, thousands of miles away, is basically how a thunderstorm forming in the Pacific and circulation out of those thunderstorms impacts levels of vertical wind shear,” said Dr. Klotzbach.
Wind shear describes a change in wind speed or direction with height in the atmosphere. Higher amounts of winds shear and tear up tropical systems and/or prevent them from forming altogether.
Unfortunately, in the neutral to La Nina phase, we typically see less wind shear. That lower wind shear along with the above normal ocean temperatures is why Colorado State University is expecting an active season.
“We emphasize a couple of things with our seasonal forecast. One being it really only takes that one storm near you to make it an active season,” said Dr. Klotzbach. “You could have a year like 2022, 2022 was an average hurricane season. Overall, the numbers were kind of near normal, but it certainly was not an average season in Southwest Florida with Hurricane Ian.”
The report also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025:
• 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
• 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
• 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
• 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)
Does that mean Southwest Florida will get hit again this hurricane season? It does NOT, but we still need to be prepared.
“Now is kind of that time you want to make sure you have your evacuation kit ready to go, you have your preparedness plans refreshed and know what you are going to do if these storms threaten,” said Dr. Klotzbach.
Hurricane season starts June 1, so you do have time to prepare. If a tropical system does threaten Southwest Florida, our team of meteorologists at Fox 4 have you covered to get through the storm.
