UPDATE 8/29/19 5 AM
Dorian is a Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 85 mph. Pressure is now at 991 mb. It is about 150 mi north of San Juan Puerto Rico and moving away from the coast. Movement is NW at 13 mph. A NW motion is expected to continue in the next 2 days then as high pressure aloft builds in north of it, it will turn more toward the west and on a collision track with Florida. The track remains unchanged with the potential for a major hurricane landfall on the Florida East Coast this weekend. The track and exact strength are both uncertain, but if the storm makes landfall across South Florida, parts of our area will see impacts. A landfall farther north up the coast will keep us out of any inclement weather, aside from a few showers and storms and breezy conditions. However, it does appear the Florida will have a major hurricane bearing down on its coastline this holiday weekend.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 8/28/19 11 PM
Dorian's winds have increased to 85 mph. Pressure is now down to 986 mb indicating strengthening. It is about 90 mi north of San Juan Puerto Rico and moving away from the coast. Movement is NW at 13 mph. A NW motion is expected to continue then as high pressure aloft builds in north of it, it will turn it more toward the west. The track remains unchanged with the potential for a major hurricane landfall on the Florida East Coast this weekend.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/28/19 8 PM
Dorian still has winds of 80 mph but the pressure has dropped to 990 mb indicating that strengthening continues. Additional strengthening is expected tonight through Thursday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/28/19 5 PM
Hurricane Dorian has strengthened a bit over the last few hours with maximum sustained wind of 80 mph as it currently impacts the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Forward movement remains out of the west at 14 mph and is expected to eventually turn more westward later in the week. Dorian is forecast to become a major category 3 hurricane when making landfall somewhere on Florida's east coast overnight Sunday. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Virgin Islands as well as Vieques and Culebra with a hurricane watch in effect for Puerto Rico. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Puerto Rico.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8/28/19 2 PM
Dorian has now become a hurricane as of 2pm as it continues to impact the Virgin Islands. Dorian has maximum sustained wind of 75 mph and is moving NW at 13 mph and is expected to continue that movment for the next couple of days before turning more left Friday and into the weekend. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Virgin Islands as well as Vieques and Culebra with a hurricane watch in effect for Puerto Rico. There is also a tropical storm warning for Puerto Rico and tropical storm watch for the Dominican Republic. As Dorian continues to move toward Florida it is expected to strengthen possibly into a major category 3 hurricane as it is scheduled to make landfall sometime Sunday or Monday along Florida's east coast.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8/27/19 III
Tropical Storm Dorian still has maximum sustained wind of 50 mph and continues to move to the west at 14 mph. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. A tropical storm watch remains effect for Martinique and Grenada. Dorian is expected to briefly become a hurricane before weakening as it moves toward the Dominican Republic. Over land Dorian will weaken to a depression as it moves to the northwest. Both GFS and European models have Dorain dissippating before reaching southwest Florida, but we will continue to monitor this storm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8/27/19 PM II
Dorian has strengthened a bit as maximum sustained wind is up to 50 mph. Forward movement has stayed the same out of the west at 14 mph. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Martinique and Grenada. Dorian is expected to briefly become a hurricane before weakening as it moves toward the Dominican Republic. Over land Dorian will weaken to a depression as it moves to the northwest.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8/26/19 PM
The latest on Dorian shows a slightly faster forward speed out of the west at 14 mph with the same maximum sustained wind of 40 mph. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Barbados and tropical storm watches are in effect for St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The long range outlook has Dorian moving over the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and then over Hispaniola quickly weakening over land into a depression. It could briefly become a hurricane Wednesday, but dry air and wind shear may limit the strengthening of Dorian. We will continue to monitor this system over the next week.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8/25/19 AM
Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for Barbados. Tropical Storm Watch in effect for St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Dorian continues west toward the Windward Islands this morning with no change in strength. Slow strengthening is possible as it approaches the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday but it will have to overcome dry air and wind shear when it moves deeper into the Caribbean.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/24/19 11PM
Tropical Storm Dorian has maximum sustained wind at 40 mph and is moving to the west at 12 mph. It's encountering strong wind shear which is breaking the storm apart a bit, but is expected to encounter weaker shear and strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday or Wednesday as it crosses the Leeward Islands and moves toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. If Dorian follows the cone, it will move inland over the Dominican Republic as a Category 1 storm, but will weaken into a Tropical Storm over land. Long range forecast models have Dorian continue on a west/northwest track through next weekend. We will continue to monitor this system and give you the latest updates online and on-air.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8/24/19 6 PM
Dorian becomes the 4th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The latest forecast track has it approaching Hispaniola by Thursday as a minimal hurricane. A hostile environment awaits it however, with strong wind shear and dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere that could squelch further development.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/24/19 NOON
Tropical Depression #5 forms in the Atlantic east of the Windward Islands. It will continue to move west toward the Islands and Puerto Rico through the end of next week. The forecast calls for strengthening into a hurricane by the middle of the week, but the storm will have to overcome wind shear and dry air to accomplish this. Stay tuned.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/24/19 AM
Chances now up to 80% in 5 days. It is surrounded by dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer and will struggle to develop because of this.
UPDATE 8/23/19 PM
Showers and storms associated with a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is tracking toward the west. The latest projections have this system becoming the next tropical system to develop, possibly by early next week. NHC has chances for development as HIGH in the next 5 days. The system is surrounded by a lot of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer this may act to inhibit development.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
