UPDATE 9/3/19 5AM
Dorian is a Category 3 Hurricane stalled over Grand Bahama Island with winds of 120mph and gusts of 150mph. The storm remains stationary but is expected to start to finally drift north later today and continue into the Wednesday. The forecast track keeps the strongest winds of Dorian offshore of the east coast of Florida, but widespread storm surge, beach erosion and heavy rain will
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/2/19 11PM
Dorian has weakened to 130mph winds and is still holding stationary. Pressure has risen to 946mb. More weakening is expected tomorrow as it begins to slowly move to the north. The updated track keeps the core off shore.
UPDATE 9/2/19 8 PM
Dorian's wind sare now down to 140. Pressure up to 942. Northward movement is beginning and expected to continue Tuesday. Latest track keeps the strongest winds offshore.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/2/19 2 PM
Dorian looks to be moving WNW or even NW at 1 mph. Either way it has started to make the turn we've been waiting for and should continue that trend to the NW, N, then NE the next couple of days. It has maximum sustained wind at 150 mph. The minimum central pressure has risen dramatically to 938 mb so I expect Dorian to continue to weaken as it moves offshore of the East coast of Florida and comes close to the Carolina coast.
METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/2/19 12 PM
Dorian has slowed down significantly in forward movement as it's maximum sustained wind remains at 155 mph. Overnight Dorian did move a bit more northwestward, but the general movement is west. Dorian should make that northwest turn as a mid level trough moves over the east coast. This will cause Dorian to move northwest, north, then northeastward over the next couple days. Dorian should stay off the east coast of Florida and move close to the Carolina coast later this week.
METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/2/19 11AM
Hurricane Dorian, while continuing to batter the Bahamas on Monday with life-threatening winds and storm surge, has weakened very slightly to a Category 4 storm.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said in an advisory at 11 a.m. EDT that Dorian's maximum sustained winds are 155 mph (250 kph), which takes the extremely dangerous storm down one notch, from Category 5.
The storm was expected to continue inflicting devastation on Grand Bahama Island throughout Monday.
The center said the storm will move "dangerously close" to the Florida East Coast late Monday through Wednesday evening.
A hurricane warning along Florida's east coast has been extended northward to the Flagler-Volusia county line. A hurricane watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound in Georgia.
The storm's center was located about 30 miles (50 kilometers) northeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island and about 110 miles (180 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.
UPDATE 9/2/19 5AM
Hurricane Dorian still a Category 5 Hurricane with winds of 165 mph and gusts to 200 mph. The pressure is at 916 mb and the storm is practically stalled over Grand Bahama Island with an official movement of 1mph to the west. The forecast track continues to keep the eye of the storm off the east coast of Florida.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/1/19 10 PM
Slight weakening with the 11pm advisory. Winds at 180 pressure at 914. Moving W at 5. Cone remains unchanged with the western edge over eastern Florida. Prologned storm surge, wind and heavy rainfall possible for the east coast.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/1/19 10 PM
No change in strength..winds still at 185. Pressure steady at 914 mb. Next update at 11 PM.
UPDATE 9/1/19 8 PM
Winds remain at 185 but the pressure has risen indicating that a temporary weakening trend may begin soon. Pressure is now up to 914 mb. The storm is headed for Grand Bahama. Next update at 10 PM.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/1/19 5 PM
Dorian continues to batter the northern Bahamas with maximum sustained wind of 185 mph now gusting even higher at 225 mph. Dorian is moving over Great Abaco heading for the Grand Bahama Island. It has slowed down in forward speed as anticipated and is expected to turn the northwest and eventually northeast over the next few days. It looks like all forecast models have Dorian move off the coast of Florida, Georgia, and possibly making landfall in North Carolina or grazing the outer banks.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/1/19 2 PM
Dorian has slowed down a mph in forward speed to 7 mph which is what we've expected. We can expect a slower speed over the next 24-36 hours as it continues to move west, then northwest, then eventually northeast along Florida's coast as well as the Carolina Coast. Right now Dorian still has maximum sustained wind of 185 mph with gusts to 220 mph and an extremely low pressure center of 911 mb as it moves over the Great Abaco Island.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/1/19 1245 PM
Dorian is even more powerful as it makes its way close to Great Abaco in the northern Bahamas with maximum sustained wind of 185 mph and an extremely low pressure of 911 mb as it continues to move west at 8 mph. Dorian is expected to turn northwest and eventually northeast staying off Florida's east coast as it heads to the Carolinas.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/1/19 11 AM
Dorian continues to strengthen breaking the modern record in the NW Bahamas for 180 mph maximum sustained wind with gusts to 220 mph. The forecast track thankfully is offshore of Florida as it's expected to turn to the northwest then north then northeast along the Carolina Coast, but impacts from Dorian will be felt on the east coast of Florida.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/1/19 930 AM
Dorian now has winds of 175 mph as it approaches the Abaco Islands. Catastrophic damage expected. Close approach to Florida East Coast expected in the coming days.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/31/19 11 PM
Winds still at 150. Expected to slow to a crawl through the Bahamas by Monday then turn north paralleling the Florida coast with a turn northeast out into the Atlantic late next week.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/31/19 8 PM
Monster Hurricane Dorian continues to move west toward the Bahamas with 150mph winds. Tropical Storms Watches posted for parts of Florida's east coast. Next update at 11 PM.
UPDATE 8/31/19 5 PM
The track remains to the east of the Florida coast with the8 PM advisory. Winds are still at 150. Moving W at 8 so it has slowed down some as expected. Based on the latest trends, Florida may escape the worst of the weather with the tropical storm force wind field at 105 mi from the center. Tropical storm watch now in effect from Sebastian Inlet to Deerfield Beach.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/31/19 2 PM
No change in strength..winds still at 150. Pressure steady at 945 mb.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/31/19 11 AM
Winds now up to 150 mph. 157 mph wind is the minimum threshold for a Category 5. Dorian's track shifts even more east and the threat for significant impacts in SWFL is lessening. Winds are still at Cat 4 strength and aside from periodic weakening due to eyewall replacement cycles, the storm is expected to maintain this intensity all the way to the Northern Bahamas. The storm will turn northwest by Monday then turn north by mid-week. The forward speed will slow down as this turn occurs so from Tuesday through Wednesday it will still be off the Florida East Coast. There will still be a chance for Tropical Storm Force winds on the Florida East Coast if the track can remain within 100 mi of the coastline, but the threat for TS force winds in SWFL is much lower now for our inland communities especially if the track continues to shift east with subsequent advisories. Intermediate advisory is at 2 PM, next full track up date and advisory will be at 5 PM.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/31/19 5 AM
Dorian this morning is a Category 4 Hurricane with winds of 140mph and moving WNW at 12 mph. The latest forecast track has shifted a little farther east away from the state of Florida. It lies between the old forecast and the various consensus models. Additional adjustments to the forecast track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue. It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also, significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 8/30/19 11 PM
Dorian has undergone rapid intensification with winds of 140 mph. Track has been shifted east but SWFL is still in the cone. Movement is unchanged WNW at 10 mph. A turn toward the west should occur this weekend as it approaches the Northern Bahamas.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/30/19 8 PM
Winds are now up to 125 mph. Hurricane hunters have found the storm has strengthened and the pressure has dropped to 950 mb.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/30/19 5 PM
NHC track shifts east in this advisory. Winds still at 115 and slowing a bit to WNW at 9 mph. A turn toward the west is expected this weekend before turning NW toward the Florida coast by Tuesday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/30/19 2 PM
2pm advisory has Dorian now at a Cat 3 with winds of 115 mph. The satellite presentation has looked much more impressive this afternoon with the eye appearing clearly. The track will take it NW then W toward the Florida East Coast by late Sunday into Monday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/30/19 11AM
The 11AM Advisory is in on Dorian.
Dorian remains a Category 2 storm the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 69.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west- northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida peninsula late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today, and it will remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 8/30/19 8AM
The 8AM Intermediate Advisory is in on Dorian. Dorian remains a Category 2 storm and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian closely in the days ahead.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 8/30/19 5AM
Dorian remains a Category 2 with winds of 105 mph with a central pressure of 979mb. The storm is expected to continue intensifying overnight into Friday becoming a major hurricane and eventually a Category 4 as it approaches the east coast of Florida. Tropical storm force winds out 105 miles from the center and hurricane force winds 25 miles from the center. The movement is NW at 12 mph. A turn toward the west should occur Friday as strong high pressure to the north builds in and steers it toward the Bahamas and Florida. Floridians need to prepare now for a significant, prolonged hurricane landfall by Labor Day and Tuesday of next week. Tropical Storm conditions and even Hurricane conditions can not be ruled out for Southwest Florida, especially for the inland communities.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 8/29/19 11 PM
Dorian is now a Category 2 with winds of 105 mph and the storm is expected to continue intensifying overnight into Friday and the wind field has expanded with tropical storm force winds out 105 mi from the center and hurricane force winds 25 mi from the center. The movement has slowed down a touch to 12 mph to the NW. A turn toward the west should occur Friday as strong high pressure to the north builds in and steers it toward the Bahamas and Florida. Floridians need to prepare now for a significant, prolonged hurricane landfall by Labor Day and Tuesday of next week.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 8/29/19 5 PM
Dorian remains a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained wind of 85 mph. Minimum central pressure remains at 986 mb with the foreward speed remaining at 13 mph moving to the northwest. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so before making a more westerly turn toward the east coast of Florida. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane over the next day or 2 with the possibility of a Category 4 storm off the coast of Florida. The latest European model has Dorian moving along the east coast next week while the GFS (American) model having Dorian making landfall in the Melbourne area Monday afternoon. We will continue to monitor these conditions as the storm approaches Florida.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 8/29/19 11 AM
Dorian is a Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 85 mph with winds gusts of 105mph. Pressure has dropped to 986 mb. It is 220 mi NNW of San Juan Puerto Rico and moving away from the coast. Movement is NW at 13 mph. A NW motion is expected to continue in the next 2 days then as high pressure aloft builds in north of it, it will turn more toward the west and on a collision track with Florida. The track remains unchanged with the potential for a major hurricane landfall on the Florida East Coast this weekend. The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a Category 4 Hurricane hitting the east coast of Florida. The exact track and exact strength are both uncertain, but if the storm makes a landfall across South Florida, parts of our area will see impacts. A landfall farther north up the coast will keep us out of any inclement weather, aside from a few showers and storms and breezy conditions. However, it does appear the Florida will have a major hurricane bearing down on its coastline this holiday weekend.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 8/29/19 5 AM
Dorian is a Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 85 mph. Pressure is now at 991 mb. It is about 150 mi north of San Juan Puerto Rico and moving away from the coast. Movement is NW at 13 mph. A NW motion is expected to continue in the next 2 days then as high pressure aloft builds in north of it, it will turn more toward the west and on a collision track with Florida. The track remains unchanged with the potential for a major hurricane landfall on the Florida East Coast this weekend. The track and exact strength are both uncertain, but if the storm makes landfall across South Florida, parts of our area will see impacts. A landfall farther north up the coast will keep us out of any inclement weather, aside from a few showers and storms and breezy conditions. However, it does appear the Florida will have a major hurricane bearing down on its coastline this holiday weekend.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
Previous coverage of Hurricane Dorian HERE.
