TROPICAL STORM MILTON
Milton has been moving slowly eastward overnight, and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
THREATS:
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
CONCERN FOR SWFL: The threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding is increasing. Heavy downpours are expected starting today through Thursday. Considering the ground is already saturated, any extra rain may lead to flooding. We'll update the threat for gusty wind and storm surge as new data become available.
HURRICANE KIRK
Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph. An acceleration toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next few days while Kirk moves across the northeastern Atlantic.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Although weakening is expected through midweek, Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next day or so before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by early Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.
THREATS:
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
Following in Kirk's path, Leslie will not threaten land.
Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today, but weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through midweek.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.
DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
