11AM Tuesday:
Ernesto has become a Post-Tropical Cyclone as it races northeast at nearly 40mph. This is the last advisory that will be issued by the National Hurricane Center on Ernesto.
Currently there is no other area being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for possible development. We are expected to be quiet for the next week as Saharan Dust remain high in the main development region of the Atlantic.
5AM Tuesday:
Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph. An even faster motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will move over the open North Atlantic today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Ernesto should lose its tropical characteristics later today, and dissipate on Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb.
11PM Monday:
Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph. An even faster motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is currently near its closest approach to Newfoundland, and it should move into the open Atlantic on Tuesday.
No additional formation is forecast through the next 7-days in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea.
5PM Monday:
The center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland tonight and early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid weakening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles.
Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next day or so. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions.
11 AM Monday:
Ernesto a little stronger now with maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb.
5 AM Monday:
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph, and a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected today and Tuesday On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland tonight and early Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and a weakening trend is expected to begin tonight. Ernesto is expected to lose tropical characteristics during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb.
5 PM Sunday:
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph and this motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Some additional intensification is forecast over the next 12 hours followed by weakening before Ernesto becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles.
8 AM Sunday:
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph, and some increase in forward speed is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Some re-intensification is possible later today, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the center.
5 PM Saturday:
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph, and this slow motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda through tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane strength through Monday. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.
11 AM Saturday:
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. An acceleration toward the north-northeast should begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring late Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles.
5 AM Saturday:
Ernesto made landfall on the western side of Bermuda around 430 AM AST. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph, and this general motion is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to slowly depart Bermuda today and move near or east of Newfoundland Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. Some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend before weakening begins on Monday.
Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles.
5 PM Friday:
Conditions will continue to deteriorate in Bermuda this evening as Ernesto moves closer. Currently, Ernesto is a Cat. 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph and is forecast to weaken slightly to a 90 mph Cat. 1 before landfall in the morning in Bermuda.
Ernesto is a large hurricane with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 75 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds outward up to 275 miles from the center.
Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions already beginning on the island.
A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island.
Rough surf and large waves generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are also beginning to affect the east coast of the United States and will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
11 AM Friday:
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph. This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week.
Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
5 AM Friday:
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a slower north-northeastward motion on Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday and maintain hurricane strength through the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb.
11 PM Thursday:
Tonight, Ernesto is a strengthening Category 2 hurricane, tracking north toward Bermuda. Hurricane force winds extend 60 miles from the storm's center with tropical storm force winds extending out 265 miles from the storm's center.
Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding.
Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach Bermuda.
U.S. EAST COAST IMPACTS: Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States overnight and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
5 PM Thursday:
Conditions will be deteriorating in Bermuda starting tomorrow. Hurricane Warnings are currently in effect for Bermuda as hurricane conditions are expected Friday night into Saturday, as Ernesto is forecast to hit the island nation as a Cat. 2 hurricane.
Ernesto will bring a high threat for rip currents and rough surf to the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. The Gulf will not feel those particular impacts.
For Southwest Florida, Ernesto will actually produce a great weekend for us. It will help to drive in drier air from the north, which will lower our rain chances and drop our humidity a bit over the weekend.
11 AM Thursday:
No major changes with Ernesto at 11AM. Storm maintains winds of 85mph as it moves north at 14mph.
5 AM Thursday:
Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 mph and this motion will continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or northward motion tomorrow and Saturday. On the current track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. NOAA buoy 41046, located about 20 miles north of Ernesto, recently reported a minimum central pressure of 987.4 mb.
11 PM Wednesday:
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ernesto could become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.
IMPACTS TO THE U.S. : Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For Southwest Florida, Ernesto will actually drive in drier air from the north, dropping our rain chances, lowering humidity and morning lows this weekend.
5 PM Wednesday:
New at 5pm, the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda, where hurricane conditions are possible on Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.
In Bermuda, Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding.
Rainfall is expected to diminish this evening across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Total rainfall amounts from Ernesto are expected to be in the 6 to 10 inch range, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern to eastern Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico, and 4 to 6 inches across the U.S and British Virgin Islands.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells will reach the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.
Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
11 AM Wednesday:
Ernesto becomes a hurricane north of Puerto Rico. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight, with a generally northward motion at a slower forward speed continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, move across the western Atlantic during the next few days, and approach Bermuda Friday and Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb.
5AM Wednesday:
Ernesto close to hurricane status this morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph with higher gusts. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later this morning and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days.
The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph and a turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the north of Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center. A metar station at the Roosevelt Roads Naval Station recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph and a gust of 74 mph. A NOAA Saildrone located about 65 miles north- northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph with a gust to 76 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb.
11 PM Tuesday:
Ernesto is a strong tropical storm, moving toward the northwest near 17 mph. A turn toward the is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico through early Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will reach the Dominican Republic overnight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday.
IMPACTS TO THE U.S.: Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
5 PM Tuesday:
Ernesto continues to strengthen about 65 miles east of St. Thomas. It now has sustained winds of 60 mph and gusts to 70 mph. It's expected to impact the Virgin Island and Puerto Rico this evening with tropical storm conditions, later becoming a hurricane tonight north of Puerto Rico.
Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph. A turn toward the northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north Wednesday night and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto should pass near or over the Virgin Islands this evening, and then pass just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and on Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be near Bermuda by Friday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by tonight to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands from St. Kitts and Nevis to St. Martin and across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area in the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this evening and tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible over the Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra this evening into tonight.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will then reach the Dominican Republic tonight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are also expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
11AM Tuesday:
Ernesto a little stronger with winds now at 50mph and gusts up to 65mph.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Hurricane Watch for the British Virgin Islands.
5AM Tuesday:
The center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near the Leeward Islands and the storm is moving toward the west near 20 mph. A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters north of the Greater Antilles. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. St. Barthelemy recently reported a wind gust of 53 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations in the Leeward Islands is 1007 mb.
