UPDATE 9/19/21 8 PM
Tropical Storm Peter and Rose continue to move over open water and not impact any land areas, but the National Hurricane Center are watching 2 more waves in the tropics.
The first is an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located associated with a tropical wave that is moving off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive for development over the next several days which means yet another tropical depression could form later this week as it moves to the west at 10 to 15 mph.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is MEDIUM at 50%
The second is the remnants of Odette which is now a non-tropical low pressure system. It is located a couple of hundred miles south of Newfoundland. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly eastward and then southeastward over warmer water.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 30%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/19/21 2 PM
Tropical Storm Peter and Rose are harmlessly moving through the Atlantic, but the National Hurricane Center are watching 2 more waves in the tropics.
The first is a tropical wave located along the west coast of Africa is forecast to emerge offshore this evening. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is MEDIUM at 40%
The second is the remnants of Odette which is a non-tropical low pressure system. It is located a few hundred miles south of Newfoundland. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly eastward and then southeastward over warmer water across the north central Atlantic Ocean.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 30%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/18/21 11 PM
Post tropical Odette continues to move away from the United States and Tropical Depression Sixteen formed over 600 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, but the National Hurricane Center is still monitoring 1 other area in the tropics.
It is an area of showers and thunderstorms in association with another area of low pressure located a few hundred miles SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and storms have become better organized over the past several hours and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while moving toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. It will move toward cooler water and an area of stronger upper level wind shear early next week, which should limit its development.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 70%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 70%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/18/21 8 PM
Post tropical Odette contines to move away from the United States, but the National Hurricane Center is still monitoring 2 other areas in the tropics.
The first is invest 95-L which is an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located about 600 miles ESE of the northern Leeward Islands. Invest 95-L continues to show signs of organization. It appears as though the circulation of this low is gradually becoming better defined. A tropical depression or tropical storm could form later tonight or early Sunday. This system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday before it turns to the northwest and then northward. Upper-level wind is likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 90%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 90%
The second area we are watching is showers and thunderstorms in association with another area of low pressure located a few hundred miles SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and storms have become better organized over the past several hours and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while moving toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. It will move toward cooler water and an area of stronger upper level wind shear early next week, which should limit its development.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 70%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 70%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/18/21 5 PM
Odette has become post tropical and contines to move away from the United States, but the National Hurricane Center is still monitoring 2 other areas in the tropics.
The first is invest 95-L which is an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles ESE of the Leeward Islands. This wave continues to show signs of organization, but the system does not yet have a well defined circulation. Only a slight increase in organization of this system would lead to the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm, which is expected to occur later today or tonight. The low continues to move toward the WNW at about 15 mph and is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. It is then forecast to turn to the northwest and then north away from the United States. Upper-level wind is likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 90%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 90%
The second area we are watching is a low pressure system located a few hundred miles SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. It continues to show signs of organization and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system. A tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as it moves toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. This system is expected to reach cooler water and an area of stronger upper level wind early next week, which could limit its development. It is not forecast to not impact any land areas.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is MEDIUM at 50%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is MEDIUM at 50%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/18/21 2 PM
Tropical Storm Odette contines to move away from the United States, but the National Hurricane Center is still monitoring 2 other areas in the tropics.
The first is invest 95-L which is an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles ESE of the Leeward Islands. This wave continues to show signs of organization, but the system does not yet have a well defined circulation. Only a slight increase in organization of this system would lead to the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm, which is expected to occur later today or tonight. The low continues to move toward the WNW at about 15 mph and is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. It is then forecast to turn to the northwest and then north away from the United States. Upper-level wind is likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 90%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 90%
The second area we are watching is a low pressure system located a few hundred miles SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. It continues to show signs of organization and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system. A tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as it moves toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. This system is expected to reach cooler water and an area of stronger upper level wind early next week, which could limit its development. It is not forecast to not impact any land areas.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is MEDIUM at 50%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is MEDIUM at 50%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/17/21 5 PM
The remnants of Nicholas continues to drop several inches of rain in along the central Gulf Coast creating flash flooding concerns. Tropical Storm Odette has also formed this afternoon, but the National Hurricane Center is still monitoring 2 other areas in the tropics.
The first is an area of showers and thunderstorms that we have been watching over the past several days. It is associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week. This wave is moving toward the WNW at about 15 mph. It is expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands by Monday and Tuesday. Upper level winds could become less conducive for development over the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 70%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 80%
The second is a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles SSE of the Cabo Verde Islands that continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move toward the west and then northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Gradual development is possible over the weekend before upper level wind increases and the low moves over cooler water.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 20%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 30%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/17/21 2 PM
The remnants of Nicholas continues to drop several inches of rain in along the central Gulf Coast creating flash flooding concerns. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor 3 other areas in the tropics.
The first is an area of low pressure with a new and better-defined center of circulation. It has developed about 250 miles east of Norfolk, Virginia. Shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized near this new center. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves toward the northeast at 10 to 15 mph away from the United States. This system is expected to transform into a non-tropical low Saturday or Saturday night while it is located south of Atlantic Canada, and it is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rains to portions of Newfoundland by Sunday and Sunday night. It is also expected to bring high surf to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through this weekend.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 80%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 80%
The second is an area of showers and thunderstorms that we have been watching over the past several days. It is associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week. This wave is moving toward the WNW at about 15 mph. It is expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands by Monday and Tuesday. Upper level winds could become less conducive for development over the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 70%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 80%
The third is a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles SSE of the Cabo Verde Islands that continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move toward the west and then northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Gradual development is possible over the weekend before upper level wind increases and the low moves over cooler water.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 20%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 30%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/16/21 2 PM
Tropical Depression Nicholas continues to drop several inches of rain in along the central Gulf Coast creating flash flooding concerns. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor 3 other areas in the tropics.
The first is a broad area of low pressure a couple hundred miles SSE of the Outer Banks of North Carolina is producing better organized showers and thunderstorms, but still lacks a well defined center. Hurricane hunters are investigating the system right now. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so. This system is now moving to the NNE and will stay away from the United States. It could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week and this weekend.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 70%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 70%
The second is an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 900 miles SWS of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has become less organized compared to yesterday, but environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days. A tropical depression is still likely to form over the weekend. This system is expected to move WNW during the next several days. Forecast models take this toward Puerto Rico next week. We will continue to monitor this closely through next week.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 70%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 80%
The third is a tropical wave producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development. Any development will be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves WNW to NW.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 20%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/16/21 11 AM
1. A tropical wave located a little more than 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands looks a little less organized. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is still likely to form late this week or this weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days is high at 80 percent.
2. A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina looks more active right now. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is still likely to form during the next day or two.
The system is expected to move northward away from Southwest Florida. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days is high at 70 percent.
3. We're also watching a tropical wave that will move off the west coast of Africa today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual development over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days is low at 20 percent.
FOX 4 FORECASTER LAUREN PETRELLI
UPDATE 9/15/21 8 PM
Tropical Depression Nicholas continues to drop several inches of rain in along the central Gulf Coast creating flash flooding concerns. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor 3 other areas in the tropics.
The first is an area of low pressure located a between the Bahamas and Bermuda. It continues to produce poorly organized shower activity. Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier this afternoon reported that the circulation was disorganized. It is encountering some wind shear as the strongest wind was well to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two. This system will move NNW for a short time then move to the north and then NNE over the next couple days. It is not expected to make landfall on the east coast, but it could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States later this week.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 70%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 70%
The second is an area of showers and thunderstorms that remain disorganized in association with an area of low pressure. Right now it is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving to the WNW. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 80%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 90%
The third is a tropical wave expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa later this week. Once over open Atlantic water, environmental conditions will become conducive for development. This wave will then move to the WNW.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 20%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/15/21 2 PM
Besides Tropical Depression Nicholas which is dropping several inches of rain in Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring 3 areas in the tropics.
The first is an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Its slowly becoming more well defined, but showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two. The wave is expected to move north and then toward the northeast parallel to the east coast. This could bring high surf to Atlantic beaches as the week progresses. Hurricane Hunters are currently enroute to investigate the disturbance.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 70%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 70%
The second is an area of Showers and thunderstorms are still rather disorganized in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions continue to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to move WNW the next several days.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 80%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 90%
The third is a tropical wave that is expected to emerge off the African coast over the next couple days. Once it reaches open water, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development as the system moves WNW.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 20%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/12/21 8 PM
Besides Tropical Storm Nicholas, the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring 3 areas in the tropics.
The first is an area of low pressure is that is expected to form by midweek a couple of hundred miles north of the Bahamas as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form later this week as it moves to the north.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is MEDIUM at 50%
The second is a tropical wave that is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this system and a tropical depression could form later this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 20%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is MEDIUM at 60%
The third is an area of showers and thunderstorms in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Azores. Significant development of this system appears unlikely during the next day or so while it moves slowly eastward. By late Tuesday, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 10%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/12/21 2 PM
The National Hurricane Center has named Tropical Storm Nicholas this morning, but is now monitoring 4 other areas in the tropics.
The first is an area of low pressure is expected to form north of the Bahamas in a few days as a tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week as it moves northwestward toward the Carolina coast.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is MEDIUM at 50%
The second is a tropical wave that will move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Conditions will be conducive for further development and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 20%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is MEDIUM at 60%
The third is an area of shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles ENE of the Azores. This system is moving SSW towards warmer water, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or so. The system will them move over Portugal bringing heavy rain to that country.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 20%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 20%
The fourth area is an area that previously looked more impressive, but shower activity associated with a tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands has diminished. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable for development.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 0%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/11/21 8 PM
The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring 5 areas in the tropics.
A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Upper level conditions are becoming more conducive for development and a depression is expected to form Sunday or Monday as the system moves northwest then north. Heavy rain and wind is possible along the Texas and possibly the Louisiana coast Monday and Tuesday.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 90%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 90%
A second wave is now located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Although conditions appear to be conducive for development, this system has not become organized over the past day or so. However, a tropical depression could form early next week as it moves to the west.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is MEDIUM at 50%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is MEDIUM at 50%
An area of low pressure is expected to form near the southeastern Bahamas in a few days resulting from moisture by a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible as it moves northwestward.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 30%
The fourth area is a tropical wave expected to move off the African coast in a few days. Some development is possible next week as it moves to the west and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is MEDIUM at 40%
A fifth area is a non-tropical low pressure is located over the northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. It will move SSW towards warmer water. This may enable it to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics by the middle of next week.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 10%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 20%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/11/21 2 PM
The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring 4 areas in the tropics.
The first is a tropical wave and upper level trough producing showers and storms in the Bay of Campeche. Conditions will become more favorable for development Sunday into Monday as a tropical depression could form as the system moves to the northwest. Heavy rain is expected along the east coast of Mexico and parts of Texas.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is HIGH at 80%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 90%
A second wave is now located just to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and has not become better organized since yesterday. Conditions appear to be conducive for development and a tropical depression could form early next week as it moves to the west.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is MEDIUM at 50%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is HIGH at 70%
The third is an area we are watching for development of an area of low pressure to the southeast of the Bahamas. Gradual development is possible over the next several days as it moves to the northwest.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 20%
The fourth area is a tropical wave expected to move off the African coast in a few days. Some development is possible next week as it moves to the west.
Formation chance over the next 2 days is LOW at 0%
Formation chance over the next 5 days is LOW at 20%
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/10/21 2 PM
The National Hurricane center is monitoring two areas in the tropics.
The first is a tropical wave over the western Caribbean producing disorganized showers and storms which are impacting portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. The system is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a trough Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for development after the merge Sunday and Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of Mexico coast.
This system has a MEDIUM chance of development through the next 2 days and a HIGH chance of development through the next 5 days.
A second wave is located along the west coast of Africa and is rather strong. It is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and is expected to move off the coast this evening. Gradual development is expected as environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or even a tropical storm to form late this weekend or early next week. This system is moving to the WNW and is expected to impact the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system has a MEDIUM chance of development through the next 2 days and a HIGH chance of development through the next 5 days.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
