5:00AM, Thursday, October 10th, 2024
Milton is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move away from Florida and to the north of the Bahamas today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low tonight.
Hurricane Warnings in SWFL have been canceled at 5AM, but a Tropical Storm Warning still exists for now in Glades County. Flood Watches have been canceled for Collier, Glades, and Hendry, but remain for Lee, Charlotte, DeSoto, and Sarasota Counties. We also have a wind advisory for Collier County Coastline with wind gusts through 4pm of 40 mph.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles . A sustained wind of 75 mph and a gust to 83 mph was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in Marineland. A sustained wind of 61 mph and a gust to 76 mph was recently reported at a Weatherstem station on South Hutchinson Island. A sustained wind of 60 mph and a gust of 87 mph was recently reported at Daytona Beach International Airport.
2:00AM, Thursday, October 10th, 2024
Milton continues to weaken in central Florida, and is a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 90 mph, 45 miles west of Cape Canaveral. It remains a dangerous flooding threat across central and west-central Florida, though the heavy rain threat has ended for SWFL.
Milton made landfall at 8:30pm near Siesta Key with sustained winds of 120 mph, a powerful Category 3 hurricane.
The threats for flooding rainfall and tornadoes have ended for SWFL, but gusty winds will continue overnight, gradually dropping to 50 mph around 5am. Winds will gust to 40 mph throughout the day.
Peak storm surges have occurred but water levels remain high across SWFL. Waters will gradually recede overnight through Thursday. Downtown Fort Myers hit a peak surge of 5.26', surpassing surge produced in Hurricane Helene two weeks ago.
Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move across the central part of the Florida during the next few hours, and emerge off the east coast of Florida around sunrise.
Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida this morning. After moving into the Atlantic, Milton is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles.
11:00PM, Wedesday, October 9th, 2024
On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida overnight. After moving into the Atlantic, Milton is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles. A sustained wind of 92 mph and a gust of 107 mph was recently reported at a UF Sentinel/WeatherFlow station in Venice.
A sustained wind of 58 mph and a gust of 82 mph was recently reported at Tampa International Airport. A gust of 94 mph was recently reported at a Citizen Weather Observer Program station in Bartow. A sustained wind of 52 mph and a gust of 77 mph was recently reported at Winter Haven Regional Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb.
5:00PM, Wednesday, October 9th, 2024
Milton is a Cat. 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph, gusts to 150 mph. The worst of the winds will be in and around the eyewall, especially over Sarasota and Manatee counties.
Heavy rainfall with tropical-storm force winds are spreading inland across the Florida peninsula. A recent wind gust of 68 mph was recorded at a mesonet site located in Fort Myers Beach. Water is now starting to inundate Estero Blvd.
Landfall is expected near the Sarasota/Manatee county line later tonight around 9-10pm.
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM FOR COLLIER, HENDRY, GLADES, AND SRASOTA COUNTIES. The Tornado Watch has been cancelled for Lee, Charlotte and DeSoto counties. That said, the worst of the threat currently is on the east coast. We could still see another warning or two as these outer rain bands move onshore.
Landfall is still expected as a strong Cat. 3, weak Cat. 4 near the Sarasota/Manatee county line, keeping SWFL in the dangerous front right quadrant and potential for catastrophic storm surge.
THE WORST OF THE SURGE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT, EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. As winds shift and become onshore, then waters will rise to their peak. Here is how high the water is forecast to rise on top of normal high tide.
8:00AM, Wedesday, October 9th, 2024
Milton has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with winds of 155mph just 2mph shy of Category 5 status.
The storm is moving northeast at 16mph.
5:00AM, Wedesday, October 9th, 2024
Milton is still a Category 5 Hurricane with winds of 160mph with 195mph and the storm is moving northwest at 14mph.
A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph with higher gusts.
Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 907 mb.
Deadly storm surge is expected with this storm as the values climbed late yesterday. Coastal Charlotte and Sarasota counties are expecting 10-15' feet of storm surge. This also includes Boca Grande. Boca Grande south through Bonita Beach including the Charlotte Harbor will see 8-12' of storm surge.
11:00 pm, Tuesday, October 8th, 2024
Milton is forecast to make landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Sarasota/Manatee county early Thursday morning. This will produce extreme and potentially deadly storm surge across SWFL.
Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected overnight through Wednesday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
8:00 pm, Tuesday, October 8th, 2024
Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.
Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph. A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected tonight through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
5:00 pm, Tuesday, October 8th, 2024
Milton is back up to Cat. 5 strength. Catastrophic storm surge is becoming more likely along SWFL's coast. Potential heights have been upgraded to 8-12' from Bonita Beach to Englewood; this includes our barrier islands. If you flooded in Helene, you will flood in Milton. Please seek shelter inland away from water.
Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.
11:00 am, Tuesday, October 8th, 2024
Hurricane Milton was located 520 miles southwest of Tampa, Fl. Although Milton has been wobbling during the past few hours, its longer-term motion is toward the east-northeast near 8 mph. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday. Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.
11:00 am, Tuesday, October 8th, 2024
Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.
THREATS:
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Mexico today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
WARNINGS:
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth
of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line
northward to Ponte Vedra Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County
Line to Flamingo
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island,
the Abacos, and Bimini.
8:00am, Tuesday, October 8th, 2024
Milton has weakened a bit more and now has winds of 145mph with higher gusts as it move east-northeast at 12 mph.
5:00am, Tuesday, October 8th, 2024
Milton has slightly weakened to a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 155mph and gusts up to 190mph. It is forecast to reach Category 5 status again this later this afternoon once an eyewall replacement cycle is complete. These eyewall replacement cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands.
A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall in Florida Wednesday night. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb.
11:00pm, Monday, October 7th, 2024
Milton remains a powerful Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph. It will weaken slightly before landfall, but is still projected to make landfall as a powerful Major Hurricane on Wednesday night.
Storm surge will remain SWFL's primary threat. The worst of it will hit Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. 6-10 feet of surge are forecast from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. 4-7 feet of surge are forecast to impact coastal Collier county. These heights will flood first story structures at sea level.
I've had viewers ask about how these values compare to surge in Helene and Ian. Bottom line: if you flooded in Helene, you will likely be flooded in Milton.
TIMING: Conditions will deteriorate on Wednesday with the worst of the winds and surge hitting overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Conditions will improve throughout the day on Thursday.
5:00pm, Monday, October 7th, 2024
Milton is officially the strongest Cat. 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Rita in 2005. It has winds of 180 mph and gusts to 220 mph and is moving east at 10 mph.
Hurricane Watches have been upgraded to Warnings for DeSoto, Sarasota, Charlotte and Lee Counties. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Hendry, Glades and Collier counties.
Storm surge watches have also been upgraded to Warnings.
2:00pm, Monday, October 7th, 2024
Milton continues to strengthen and now has sustained winds at a staggering 175mph with gusts up to 190mph.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 175 mph with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.
11:55am, Monday October 7th 2024
Milton rapidly intensifies into a Category 5 Hurricane.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph with higher usts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb.
It is forecast to reach 165mph later today.
9am, Monday October 7th 2024
Milton has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Hurricane.
Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 940 mb. These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT advisory.
8am, Monday October 7th 2024
Milton continues to strengthen. The hurricane now has winds of 125mph with gust up to 155mph as it moves ESE at 8mph.
Further strengthening is expected, and Milton is forecast to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane later today and maintain that intensity for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb based Air Force dropsonde data.
7am, Monday October 7th 2024
NOAA Hurricane Hunters find that Milton is now a Major Hurricane.
The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 120 mph. Milton is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 954 mb.
A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM to reflect this change and update the forecast.
5am, Monday October 7th 2024
Milton continues to strengthen and is now a Category 2 storms with winds of 100mph with gusts up to 120mph. The storm is moving ESE at 8mph.
Southwest Florida has been placed under a Tropical Storm Watch and a Hurricane Watch ahead of Hurricane Milton.
At 5AM Milton is a Category 2 Hurricane and is expected to peak as a strong Category 4 over the Gulf of Mexico with slight weakening as it approaches the coast line Wednesday evening. The forecast currently calls for a major hurricane at landfall along the west coast of the state.
I can express this enough, even if Milton makes landfall north of Southwest Florida the impacts will still be significant for us given we will be on the "dirty side" of the storm with the highest surge, heaviest rain and highest threats of tornadoes.
A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued for all of Southwest Florida Storm surge of 5-10 feet is forecast from Englewood south to Bonita Beach. 4-7 feet of surge is forecast from Bonita Beach south to Chokoloskee.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb.
11pm, Sunday, October 6, 2024
Milton is moving toward the east near 7 mph. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.
THREATS:
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.
WARNINGS:
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Celestun to Cancun
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Celestun to Cabo Catoche.
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida early Monday.
5pm, Sunday, October 6, 2024
Milton is moving toward the east near 7 mph, and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.
THREATS:
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WARNINGS:
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Celestun to Cancun
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Celestun to Cabo Catoche.
2pm, Sunday, October 6, 2024
Milton is moving toward the east near 6 mph, and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.
THREATS:
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major flooding possible.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and possible in the watch area on Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Minor coastal flooding could also occur along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from large swells.
WARNINGS:
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Celestun to Cabo Catoche.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun.
11am, Sunday, October 6, 2024
Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph, and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Tuesday and during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane late Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.
THREATS:
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major flooding possible.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and possible in the watch area on Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
WARNINGS:
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Celestun to Cabo Catoche.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun.
8am, Sunday, October 6, 2024
Milton has been moving slowly eastward overnight, and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
THREATS:
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
5pm, Saturday, October 5, 2024
Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph. A slow east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
THREATS:
Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
2pm, Saturday, October 5th, 2024
Tropical Depression 14 has been upgraded by the National Hurricane Center to Tropical Storm Milton. Also a flood watch has been issued for Hendry, Glades, and Collier Counties until Thursday morning. Expect the rest of SWFL, to be under a flood watch soon.
11am, Saturday, October 5th, 2024
Tropical Depression 14 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico.
At 11 am the National Hurricane Center issued the first cone, bringing the depression to tropical storm strength by Sunday and would be named Milton. The Hurricane Center currently has Milton making along Florida's Gulf Coast on Wednesday as Category 2 Hurricane with 110 mph. Depending on track, we will be watch the threats of heavy rain leading to flooding, storm surge, tornadoes, and tropical force winds. It still to early pin the exact details down. Watches and warning will issued soon.
The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph. A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so. A faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
THREATS:
Rainfall: The system may produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
A full look at the rest of the Tropics can be found here.
