UPDATE 7/25/20 5 PM
Gonzalo has just died west of the Windward Islands. NHC has issued the last advisory on this storm. We will continue to track the remnant circulation from Gonzalo as it moves through the Caribbean for possible regeneration (some of our forecast models are hinting at this) but it's looking unlikely at this point.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7/25/20 11 AM
Gonzalo will track through the Windwards today bringing rain and gusty winds, then will likely succumb to a hostile environment in the Caribbean by Monday. It is expected to dissipate by Sunday or Monday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7/25/20 8 AM:
Gonzalo is bringing heavy rain as it inches closer to Trinidad and Tobago. Satellite shows maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with even higher gusts. However, the tropical storm isn't expected to change much as it reaches the southern Windward Islands later today. Gonzalo is expected to weaken as moves over the southeastern Caribbean, and eventually dissipating by Sunday night or Monday.
FORECASTER LAUREN PETRELLI
UPDATE 7/24/20 5 PM
Gonzalo is on borrowed time as dry air continues to eat away at the storm. Winds are down to 40 mph and it is unlikely to restrengthen as it moves deeper into the Caribbean. The forecast has not changed with the storm expected to die early next week.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7/24/20 11 AM
Gonzalo has weakened further with winds now down to 50 mph. Dry air is impacting the system and that is not expected to change as it moves deeper into the Caribbean. It is no longer forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands, and as it moves deeper into the Caribbean, shear and dry air will eventually take its toll and kill the storm off by next week.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7/24/20 5 AM
Tropical Storm Gonzalo has been struggling as it interacts with dry air to the north, but it does have a window to briefly strengthen to a hurricane Saturday afternoon as it temporarily moves into a more favorable environment. Gonzalo is a small storm. The tropical storm force winds only extend outward up to 25 miles from the center.
Tropical Storm Gonzalo is located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 51.8 West and is moving toward the west near 14 mph. A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. The center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and move across these islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean on overnight into Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands. This is the good news - WEAKENING is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week.
Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 7/23/20 11 PM
Gonzalo continues west and is showing some signs of reorganization after weakening on Thursday morning. Thunderstorms have been firing around the center of circulation, despite fighting moderate wind shear and drier air to its north. The storm will continue west toward the Windward Islands as either a strong tropical storm or a minimal Cat 1 Hurricane by Saturday with weakening to follow as it heads farther west into the Caribbean. Forecast models call for eventual dissipation of the system by early next week.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7/23/20 5 PM
Gonzalo weakened this afternoon with the 2pm Intermediate Advisory and maintains winds of 60 at 5 PM. The forecast track has been shifted northward to adjust for a model forecast track shift to the north. Still expected to reach the Windwards as a hurricane then weakening as it moves deeper into the Caribbean. The storm is small and will have to battle mid-level dry air, which should keep intensity in check.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7/23/20 11 AM
Gonzalo is having issues this morning with the ingestion of dry air and wind shear, both of which are hindering any further development. Winds remain at around 65 mph and the forecast still calls for strengthening into a hurricane as it approaches the Windward Islands. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The storm will most likely succumb to the dry air over the Caribbean as it leaves the Windwards later this weekend, with most of the global models, such as the GFS and Euro allowing the storm to dissipate.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7/23/20 5 AM
Gonzalo continues to strengthen as it moves west at 12 mph and now has winds of 65 mph with gusts of 75 mph. The storm is expected to reach hurricane status later on today becoming the first hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and the estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb.
Gonzalo is a small system but is still likely to bring Tropical Storm or Hurricane conditions to Barbados and the Windward Islands on Saturday. There is already a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Barbados.
As the small storm enters the Caribbean it is forecast to interact with dry air and upper-level shear and is forecast to weaken to a Tropical Storm Monday with winds of 65mph and down to 45mph on Tuesday.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 7/22/20 11 PM
Gonzalo has strengthened with winds at 60 mph. The westward movement continues at 14 mph and is expected to arrive in the Windward Islands by this weekend as a strong tropical storm or a low end Cat 1 hurricane. Forecast track remains unchanged.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7/22/20 5 PM
Gonzalo continues west toward the Windward Islands...no change in strength but it continues to look more impressive on satellite. I do expect it to strengthen overnight and we could have a strong tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane as it approaches the Windwards by this weekend. Afterward... hostile conditions deeper in the Caribbean will likely cause some weakening and several of our forecast models call for the storm to dissipate. Still plenty of time to watch, but the current upper-level pattern favors any surviving storm to enter the Gulf eventually.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7/22/20 11 AM
Gonzalo continues to look more impressive on satellite this morning, with winds now up to 50 mph. The forecast track remains relatively unchanged but is now forecast to become a minimal hurricane by the end of the week. As it approaches the Lesser Antilles, upper-level shear and some dry air may impact the strength and allow for some weakening. The global models (GFS, Euro, Canadian, UKMet...etc) are not bullish on strengthening this storm at all. In fact all of them kill the storm off by this weekend. A few others though do keep it at hurricane strength, fighting any wind shear and dry air it may encounter. Overall the future intensity is highly uncertain and will have to be watched. Of immediate concern, the southern Windward Islands will need to pay close attention to this system as it approaches.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 7/22/20 9AM
Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed in the Atlantic breaking the record for the earliest 7th named storm in the Atlantic. The previous record was Gert that formed on July 24th, 2005.
Satellite data indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened this morning and winds are now at 45 mph. The intensity forecast will be updated in the regular advisory from the National Hurricane Center at 11 AM.
The storm is about 1,250 miles east of the southern Windward Islands and moving WNW at 12 mph with a central pressure of 1003MB.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 7/22/20 5AM
Tropical Depression #7 is a very small and compact system, but is close to Tropical Storm strength this morning as it moves west-northwest near 12 mph over the south central Atlantic.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system in the days ahead.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 7/21/20 11 PM
No change in intensity. Track forecast takes it toward the Lesser Antilles by this weekend as a strong tropical storm. There are questions as to how it will handle the dry air and wind shear that it will encounter as it moves deeper in the Caribbean. Most computer models dissipate the storm or at least weaken it by this weekend. A couple of others have it fighting off the effects of the dry air and wind shear and bring it up to hurricane intensity as it heads into the Caribbean. Still, plenty of time to watch it, but no immediate concerns.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
FIRST UPDATE 7/21/20 5 PM
Tropical Depression #7 has formed in the Atlantic this afternoon and is headed west toward the Lesser Antilles. The storm has been battling dry air from the Saharan Air Layer, but within the last 18 hours has undergone a remarkable recovery and has been able to develop storms near the center. That combined with a vigorous area of low pressure has prompted the NHC to begin issuing advisories for Tropical Depression #7 at 5PM Eastern.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
