UPDATE 9/27/19 11PM
The NHC is no longer issuing advisories on Karen. It has weakened and is no longer a tropical cyclone. The remnants will slowly move west and dissipate by next week.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 9/27/19 5PM
Karen is becoming increasingly disorganized... winds are down to 35 mph which makes it a tropical depression. It is feeling the effects of NW shear and is expected to increase. It should become a remnant low by Saturday.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 9/27/19 5 AM
Karen continues to show signs of weakening as it moves toward the northeast. Wind shear is the main cause of Karen's weakening as that will continue to tear the storm apart. Karen will make a clockwise loop and begin moving to the west late this weekend, but forecast models dissipate the storm early next week.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/26/19 5 PM
Karen is slowly weakening and may be downgraded to a depression within the next 12 to 24 hours. Wind shear is the main cause of Karen's weakening as that will continue to tear the storm apart. Forecast models dissipate the storm early next week as it will be moving toward the west.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/26/19 11AM
Karen continues to struggle with most of its storms to the west of its center. It is stuck between an upper level high to the north and an upper level low moving west into the Bahamas. Conditions are not favorable and it is expected to eventually move westward and weaken to a remnant low or low pressure trough in the next 3-5 days. No threat to US.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 9/25/19 5 AM
Karen is barely holding on as a Tropical Storm this morning. The 5AM advisory has Karen with 40 mph winds with gusts to 50 mph moving NNE at 15mph. The storm is expected to slow down and eventually make a turn toward the west early next week. The storm is expected to weaken further and the official forecast calls for the storm to be a remnant low in 96hrs.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/25/19 11 PM
Karen continues to struggle with less than ideal conditions for reorganization and the official forecast calls for weakening to a depression by the weekend. A turn toward the west southwest is still expected through next week but the system will likely dissipate before it gets close to Florida.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/25/19 5 PM
Karen has weakened and is struggling with dry air and wind shear. The storm will struggle with these hostile conditions through next week and there are questions as to whether or not it will survive. The official forecast track brings it north then slows it down, potentially stalling it for a period, then looping it back to the southwest as a strong area of high pressure builds north of it. This will steer the storm toward the Bahamas and the U.S. Most of the forecast models do not develop the system significantly and many in fact dissipate the storm by the early part of next week. Right now, there is no concern that this will be an eventual problem for South Florida, but we'll keep watching it.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/25/19 11 AM
A weak tropical storm Karen continues to move north at 15 mph. Karen is fighting dry air that has entered the center of the storm, but it appears that Karen will maintain tropical storm status over the next few days. Karen is expected to take a northeasterly turn and then loop around clockwise and move to the west and southwest due to a ridge that will block Karen from continuing the northeast movement. Some of the long range models indicate this system will approach the Bahamas and even Florida by the middle of next week. We have a lot of time to watch and monitor this storm. Stay with Fox 4 in the days ahead.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/25/19 5 AM
The center of Tropical Storm Karen is now 155 miles NNE of San Juan, Puerto Rico and moving N at 14mph with sustained winds of 45 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. The storm will eventually change direction Friday into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure is forecast to move in blocking Karen from continuing north. This high will push the storm west and some of the long range models indicate this system approaching the Bahamas and even Florida in the middle of next week. We have a lot of time to watch and monitor this storm. Stay with Fox 4 in the days ahead.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/24/19 11 PM
Karen hasn't changed much since earlier today... a center has been difficult to find but seems to be located just NE of Puerto Rico. Heavy rain and mud slides will continue to be possible. Winds are at 45mph as it moves NNE. Eventually, it is expected to slow down and turn to the west but there is a lot of uncertainty with it's future. Be sure to get updates into the weekend.
FOX 4 METEOTOLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 9/24/19 5 PM
Karen looks better organized this afternoon as it moves closer to Puerto Rico. Locally heavy rainfall will be an issue with Karen as it moves through P.R. and the V.I. tonight through Wednesday. The forecast track has not changed, with a northward movement then a turn toward the west late in the period. The storm will likely slow down by the the weekend as well.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/24/19 11 AM
Karen will move north toward Puerto Rico in the next day or so bringing gusty winds and the threat for very heavy rainfall. Mudslides will be possible some areas. The future forecast remains uncertain. There is a good chance Karen will stall in the Atlantic before it decides its next move. There is a possibility it could become entangled with Jerry. Conditions overall do not appear ideal for significant intensification through the end of the week.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/24/19 5 AM
Karen strengthens back into a Tropical Storm this morning as Hurricane Hunters report a stronger system approaching Puerto Rico. As of 5 AM the winds are 40 mph with gusts of 50 mph and it is moving north at 7 mph. As Karen passes over Puerto Rico in the next 24hrs it is forecast to stay a Tropical Storm as it moves in the Atlantic. Friday into the weekend a ridge of high pressure is forecast to move in blocking Karen from continuing north. This high will push the storm west and some of the long range models indicate this system approaching the Bahamas and even Florida in the middle of next week. We have a lot of time to watch and monitor this storm. Stay with Fox 4 in the days ahead.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/23/19 5PM
Karen weakened to a depression on Monday afternoon as wind shear and some drier air continue to impact the system. Its future remains uncertain as it drifts north as conditions will not improve for strengthening in the next few days. Forecast models are not
as bullish with developing the system and the system is forecast to remain weak, even if the west turn toward the U.S. occurs.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/23/19 11 AM
Tropical Storm Karen remains disorganized this morning with winds remaning at 40 mph. The storm will move north through the week with a slow down in forward speed and a turn toward the west by this weekend as strong high pressure aloft builds in on top of it. We will keep an eye on the intensity and track through the period and it is too early to say whether we'll have to deal with Karen eventually.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/23/19 5 AM
Tropical Storm Karen remains disorganized this morning in the southeastern Caribbean and is moving NW at 8mph with winds of 40mph and gusts to 50mph. The storm is expected to continue to move north through mid-week toward Puerto Rico and eventually start a turn to the west over the weekend. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in north of Karen which will push the storm west over the weekend into early next week. Some of the more reliable long range models indicate Karen approaching the Bahamas and even Florida Monday into Tuesday next week. We will stay on top of this one in the days ahead.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/22/19 11 PM
Tropical storm Karen has formed in the southeast Caribbean Sea and is moving rather quickly to the WNW. It is expected to turn to the north and maintain that direction for much of the work week. There are no tropical storm warnings, but tropical storm watches are in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the British Virgin Islands. Karen is expected to be a weak tropical storm over the next couple days due to strong wind shear. Conditions will be more favorable later in the week for strengthening, but Karen should remain a tropical storm for the next several days. There is little doubt with the models as Karen is expected to turn to the northwest or even west late in the week through the upcoming weekend. We will continue to monitor this storm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/22/19 8 AM
Tropical Storm Karen formed on Sunday morning near the island of Grenada. The storm is expected to track north through the Windward and Leeward Islands through mid-week. There is some disagreement in the models on the eventual track and strength, with the European model stronger and the GFS American model showing a weaker storm. The European model is bullish on development, taking it north through the Islands then a sharp turn west under a building high pressure ridge over the eastern U.S. This would be a dangerous pattern for the U.S. and the Bahamas as it would take the storm westward toward our area if this indeed occurred. It is still way too early to say for sure how this will pan out, so make sure you are prepared in advance at all times for the rest of the season.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
