UPDATE 9/16/21 11 AM
Nicholas is now post tropical with wind of 25 mph. It is still moving slowly at 2 mph to the north so flooding rain will continue in parts of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the panhandle of Florida. River flooding is possible as well as flash flooding in urban areas over the next couple days. Another 2 to 4 inches of rain could fall with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches through Friday.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/15/21 5 PM
Tropical Depression Nicholas is moving very slowly to the east at 2 mph. This doesn't help with the already saturated ground in Louisiana and the southeast. Flash flooding will continue to occur along parts of the central Gulf Coast through at least Thursday. Maximum sustained wind is only 30 mph, but the threat will be at least 2 to 5 more inches of rain falling from Nicholas.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
UPDATE 9/14/21 11 PM
No change from the 8PM Advisory. Nicholas will be mainly a flood threat through mid to late week.
FOX4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/14/21 8 PM
Nicholas is now down to tropical depression status and is located near Port Arthur TX. The storm has moved little through the day and will only slowly move eastward into Louisiana through Thursday. Significant flooding is expected in southern Louisiana from the storm through late week with areas of Mississippi and Alabama getting in on the action as well.
FOX4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/14/21 5 PM
Nicholas is slowly moving through SE Texas and is dumping significant rainfall across southern Louisiana. There will be a high flash flood threat through mid-week across Louisiana. Winds remain at 40 mph but weakening to a depression should occur by tonight.
FOX4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 9/14/21 2PM
Nicholas is still a tropical storm but has weakened to 40mph winds. It is moving slowly ENE across southern portions of the Houston metropolitan area. Life-threatening flash floods are expected across portions of the deep south the next couple of days. No threats to SWFL.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 9/14/21 11AM
Nicholas continues to weaken with the strongest winds near the TX/LA border. It will continue to weaken now that it is over land but heavy rainfall & flooding will be the main threat. Nicholas could slow down or even stall over LA due to lack of steering. The track is similar to earlier today but a bit slower.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 9/14/21 8 AM
Data from NOAA Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Nicholas should weaken further today as it moves farther inland, and the storm is forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center. During the past couple of hours, a Weatherflow station near Galveston Bay, Texas, reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 mph and a gust to 52 mph. Farther to the east, an observing station at Texas Point recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 37 mph and a gust to 45 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb based on nearby surface observations.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/14/21 5 AM
After making landfall as a hurricane early this morning on the coast of Texas Nicholas is back down to tropical storm status with winds of 70mph. Landfall occurred at 1:30AM on the eastern part of the Matagorda Peninsula, about 10 miles west-southwest of Sargent Beach, Texas.
Now heavy rain will be the concern as Nicholas could cause life-threatening flash floods across the deep south during the next couple of days as it slowly moves east. Nicholas should weaken further today and is forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center. A NOAA station at Galveston Bay, Texas recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 54 mph gusting to 68 mph.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 2PM 9/13/21 11 PM
Nicholas is now a hurricane and is being stubborn. It is now moving ENE along the coast of Texas with wind gusts over hurricane force for many locations on the upper Texas coast. The heaviest rain continues to stay south of Houston and with any more eastward movement, it should keep the threat south of the metro. Areas along I-10 from SE TX and SW LA will see significant flooding from this storm as the system will slow down under collapsing steering currents. The storm won't move much between now and Thursday leading to this heightened flood threat.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 2PM 9/13/21 8 PM
Nicholas is getting closer to the coast with locally heavy rainfall and tropical storm force winds spreading up to the Galveston area. Winds are now up to 70 mph. The center will make landfall in a few hours with heavy rain spreading northward into the Houston area overnight. There is a small chance that Nicholas could become a hurricane before landfall but that window is closing.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 2PM 9/13/21 5 PM
Nicholas' center forming farther north this morning will lead to an earlier landfall, likely by early Tuesday morning. The storm has strengthened a bit with winds now up 65 mph and the pressure down to 1000 mb. Additional strengthening is possible before landfall. Showers and storms associated with Nicholas will continue to spread onshore with tropical storm force wind gusts continuing across the Coastal Bend this evening and overnight. The center is now located southeast of Rockport about 65 mi or around 60 mi south of Matagorda. This should bring the storm ashore by late tonight. Heavy rain is now spreading onshore through the central and upper Texas coasts with some of the heaviest rain located south of Houston moving northward. Significant flash flooding is expected for much of southeast TX and SW Louisiana in the coming days. The threat tornadoes east of the center will increase as well through tonight and into Tuesday.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
UPDATE 2PM 9/13/21 2PM
No changes as of 2pm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 9/13/21 11 AM
There have been some changes to the eye wall this morning as it looks like a new one is forming NNE of the old one. Current motion is a bit uncertain right now bit Nicholas should continue northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. So the track has not changed much.
Strengthening is expected until landfall and it could become a hurricane before that time
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST CINDY PRESZLER
UPDATE 9/13/21 8 AM
Nicholas moving erratically just offshore of the northeastern coast of Mexico. Flash Flooding, dangerous storm surge and gusty winds expected along the southern Texas coast today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. A Weatherflow station on South Padre Island, Texas, recently reported a wind gust to 45 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
UPDATE 9/13/21 5 AM
Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. The storm should turn northward later today and north-northeastward on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas this morning, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday over land.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
FOX 4 MORNING METEOROLOGIST TRENT ARIC
FIRST UPDATE 9/12/21 11 PM
Tropical Storm Nicholas hasn't changed much over the past few hours with maximum sustained wind of 40 mph. It is still moving slowly to the north at 2 mph. It will accelerate to the north and then the NNE over the coming days making landfall along the Texas coast Tuesday morning. Heavy rain, storm surge, and gusty wind will impact Texas and parts of Louisiana through the middle of the work week. Vertical wind shear should keep Nicholas from reaching hurricane status. It will have no impact on southwest Florida.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
FIRST UPDATE 9/12/21 5 PM
Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to be a minimal storm with maximum sustained wind of 40 mph as it moves to the NNW at 14 mph. Tropical storm force wind extends and impressive 105 miles from its center. Its center is still elongated and disorganized, but this is expected to change over the next day or so. It will be moving over warm water with a moist environment, but the upper level trough in the area is creating moderate vertical wind shear. The storm is expected to strengthen into a stronger tropical storm and possibly a category 1 hurricane. Hurricane watches as well as storm surge and tropical storm warnings are in effect for parts of the Texas coast. Nicholas will be a slow moving storm once inland and has the potential to drop significant flooding rain to parts of Texas and Louisiana. Nicholas will move well away from SWFL as we will feel no impact from this storm.
FOX 4 METEOROLOGIST ERIC STONE
FIRST UPDATE 9/12/21 11 AM
Tropical Storm Nicholas formed in the SW Gulf this morning and will track parallel to the coast of Mexico and Texas in the coming days. This storm will produce significant rainfall for portions of the Texas coast from Brownsville to Beaumont with flooding possible. Portions of SW Louisiana will also see the potential for flooding rainfall. Tropical storm-force winds will also be possible this week as it moves northward along the coast.
The storm is expected to slow down as it moves toward the upper Texas coast and this will only enhance the threat for significant flooding in southeast Texas. This area has a history of dealing
with flooding rainfall from tropical storms and hurricanes such as Imelda, Harvey and Allison.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
