Here is your tropics check for Sunday, October 27, 2024:
After brief quiet period in the Tropics, the National Hurricane Center is watching an area for development in the Caribbean.
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some gradual development is possible toward the end of the week and over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support this area of interest with many of these ensemble members depict as low developing by Halloween. Regardless of the exact timing, forecast confidence is high that another tropical system forms across the Caribbean Sea by the end of October. Whether or not it makes its way into the Gulf is to be determined. If and when anything forms, then we'll have a better idea of its projected path using deterministic models but those should not be used this early in time.
Model guidance is also depicting an elevated chance of a subtropical low pressure system or tropical cyclone forming over the southwestern Atlantic (in yellow) between the Leeward Islands and Bermuda.
The season officially wraps up on November 30th. Even though our weather pattern has shifted into our classic "dry season", it's important to stay informed and check in regularly to see what is (and isn't) out there.
