Here is your tropics check for Thursday, October 31, 2024:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the end of the week. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support this area of interest with many of these ensemble members depict a low developing by this weekend. Whether or not it makes its way into the Gulf is to be determined. If and when anything forms, then we'll have a better idea of its projected path using deterministic models but those should not be used this early in time.
The season officially wraps up on November 30th. Even though our weather pattern has shifted into our classic "dry season", it's important to stay informed and check in regularly to see what is (and isn't) out there.
