We are monitoring two areas for potential development over the next week.
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central tropical Atlantic is associated with the remnants of Gordon. This system is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its northwest while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development later this week, and a tropical depression or storm could re-form in a few days while the system moves slowly northward over the central subtropical Atlantic. The good news is that this system doesn't pose a threat to land.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
These highlighted areas are what we'll be watching next week, beyond 7 days, specifically September 25-October 1.
Based on good run-to-run continuity in both ensemble and deterministic models, 60% chances of tropical system formation were issued by the Climate Prediction Center over the western Caribbean, with 40% chances covering both basins, and a broader 20% area extending into western Atlantic where models also depict elevated signals during week-2.
La Niña is favored to emerge in Sep-Nov (71% chance) and is expected to persist through Jan-Mar 2025. This will favor more development, and something we'll be watching closely.
