We are monitoring three areas for potential development over the next week.
1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (INVEST-97L):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
2. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
These highlighted areas are where we have the best chance for development, specifically between September 25-October 1.
Based on good run-to-run continuity in both ensemble and deterministic models, 60% chances of tropical system formation were issued by the Climate Prediction Center over the western Caribbean, with 40% chances covering both basins, and a broader 20% area extending into western Atlantic.
La Niña is favored to emerge in Sep-Nov (71% chance) and is expected to persist through Jan-Mar 2025. This will favor more tropical development, and something we'll be watching closely.
