Here is your tropics check for Saturday, October 26, 2024:
No formation is forecast in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico through the next 7-days.
Beyond the next 7 days, we turn to the Climate Prediction Center's outlook for October 30 to November 5 for where we may see potential development.
The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support a 40-60% chance of development across the Caribbean Sea from October 30 to November 5. Many of these ensemble members depict it starting as early as October 29. Regardless of the exact timing, forecast confidence is high that another tropical system forms across the Caribbean Sea by the end of October. Whether or not it makes its way into the Gulf is to be determined. If and when anything forms, then we'll have a better idea of its projected path using deterministic models but those should not be used this early in time.
Model guidance is also depicting an elevated chance of a subtropical low pressure system or tropical cyclone forming over the southwestern Atlantic (in yellow) between the Leeward Islands and Bermuda.
The season officially wraps up on November 30th. Even though our weather pattern has shifted into our classic "dry season", it's important to stay informed and check in regularly to see what is (and isn't) out there.
