Here is your tropics check for Thursday, October 17, 2024:
We are watching two waves of energy, but neither is a threat to Southwest Florida or the Gulf.
ATLANTIC, EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS:
A poorly-defined trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. By late this weekend, further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low near 10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days is low at 20 percent.
COULD IT IMPACT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA?
The likelihood is low that this wave will enter the Gulf next week. Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of development by late in the weekend. Even if it were to survive the strong winds, our protective ridge of high pressure would keep it to our south and AWAY from SWFL and the Gulf of Mexico.
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA:
Satellite images show a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better defined, and nearby buoy observations indicate surface pressures are falling. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next couple of days.
A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours is medium near 40 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days is medium at 40 percent.
THERE IS NO FORECAST CONE FOR "NADINE"...BECAUSE IT DOESN'T EXIST
Hopefully it's not circulating anymore, but just in case...last week, we were seeing a lot of fake posts generating about a potential storm next week. NO DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 7-DAYS.
Someone has wrongfully taken an old forecast cone and photo-shopped in a name (Nadine) and other information indicating a Florida landfall in the near-future. There is NO CONE for a new storm. There's no indication that a storm will form and hit Florida anytime soon. Thank you for staying informed from real sources!
