MONDAY EVENING UPDATE:
Sara is no longer a tropical system but some of its remnant moisture will be swept up by an approaching cold front, forecast to bring widespread rain to SWFL on Wednesday.
Otherwise, no tropical formation is in the 7-day forecast.
MONDAY 4AM UPDATE:
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Sara no longer has a well organized circulation, and therefore has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. The trough is beginning to emerge back over water in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
While strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit tropical development, the remnant moisture could interact with an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.
This is the last NHC advisory on Sara.
SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE:
Sara made landfall on Sunday in Belize just before 10am and has since been downgraded to a tropical depression.
Sara is currently 160 miles SSE of Campeche, Mexico and is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph and a turn northwestward is expected by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough either tonight or tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low or open up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday.
IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA:
RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides.
IMPACTS TO SWFL:
The remnants of Sara will be swept up by a cold front, crossing the Gulf early to midweek. Here in Southwest Florida, we'll feel tropical moisture increasing Monday and Tuesday with widespread rainfall expected on Wednesday, ending early Thursday as the front sweeps through.
