Here is your tropics check for Thursday, October 31, 2024:
We are tracking three areas of interest for potential tropical development, one in the North Atlantic and two in the Caribbean, the main focus for us in Southwest Florida.
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days across portions of the area from Nicaragua southeastward and eastward to northern Colombia.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
2. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico is producing widespread cloudiness and showers over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible during the next 2-3 days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support this merge of low pressure systems this weekend with a depression likely this weekend or early next week. The current trend in the weather models is the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico next week. That said, the track and intensity is very much in flux. The track will much depend on location of a retreating high pressure ridge to the east of Florida and speed and intensity of an approaching cold front.
If and when anything forms, then we'll have a better idea of its projected path using deterministic models but those should not be used this early in time. The next name would be Patty.
Since 1851, only three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida during the month of November.
1935 Miami Hurricane: made landfall in Miami with 100 mph winds
1985 Hurricane Kate: made landfall in Mexico Beach with 100 mph winds, latest hurricane make landfall in US History (Nov 21)
2022 Hurricane Nicole: made landfall in Vero Beach with 75 mph winds
3. North Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have developed near the center of a storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 550 miles west of the western Azores. However, any additional development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves eastward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
The season officially wraps up on November 30th. Even though our weather pattern has shifted into our classic "dry season", it's important to stay informed and check in regularly to see what is (and isn't) out there.
