Here is your tropics check for Wednesday, October 16, 2024:
We are watching two waves of energy, but neither is a threat to the Gulf.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC:
Recent satellite surface wind data showed the circulation associated with a disturbance over the tropical Atlantic Ocean has become less defined since yesterday. The trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development during the latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
COULD IT IMPACT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA?
The likelihood is low that this wave will enter the Gulf next week. The reason is that we have a strong cold front that moved through today. Behind it, an even stronger ridge of high pressure will build in. This will help to guide anything moving westward to our south and AWAY from SWFL and the Gulf of Mexico.
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual development is possible if the system stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low near 20 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days is low at 20 percent.
THERE IS NO FORECAST CONE FOR "NADINE"...BECAUSE IT DOESN'T EXIST
We are seeing a lot of fake posts generating about a potential storm next week. NO DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 7-DAYS. I'm not talking about forecast models; I'm talking about photo-shopping.
Someone has wrongfully taken an old forecast cone and photo-shopped in a name (Nadine) and other information indicating a Florida landfall in the near-future. There is NO CONE for a new storm. There's no indication that a storm will form and hit Florida. Thank you for staying informed!
