NHC still gives the broad area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf a 30% chance of subtropical or tropical development within 5 days. In short, this means that it is highly unlikely this system will develop into anything more significant than a rain-maker for the state. Aside from areas of locally heavy rainfall (which we desperately need), little impact is expected on our weather. The system will slowly drift northward toward the Panhandle by mid to late week, after which it will dissipate. Tropical moisture will continue to stream northward through the week with a decent chance for rain across SWFL, some of it heavy, through the end week. Coverage of showers and storms should decrease in coverage Tuesday through Thursday to more scattered storms and most likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Storms that do occur will be slow-moving an efficient rain producers. Localized flash flooding will be possible.
Rain chances will ramp up again later in the week and this weekend, as more tropical moisture streams northward. Chances will remain high through next Monday and additional heavy rainfall will be possible. Parts of SWFL could receive up to 4" of rainfall by Monday of next week.
FOX 4 CHIEF METEOROLOGIST DEREK BEASLEY
