With just 55 days to go until the official start of hurricane season, the team at Colorado State University released their first outlook on Thursday morning. They’ve been forecasting the hurricane season outlook for the last 39 years.
The last six seasons have been considered above average and this morning we learned CSU is forecasting 2022 to make 7 straight years of above normal storms.
“We are predicting a total of 19 named storms. Of those 19, 9 becoming hurricanes, and of those 9, 4 becoming major category 3, 4, 5 hurricanes,” said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Lead Forecaster, Colorado State University
Colorado State University meteorologists spend months putting together their yearly forecasts. They look at everything from historical data to current observations to climate forecast models and how that information fits into the bigger picture.
“And this year looks more like what we typically see ahead of an active season,” said Klotzbach.
Klotzbach says this above normal forecast has a lot to do with the forecast of the cooler side ENSO-neutral conditions this summer, closer to La Nina. Both neutral and La Nina would more tropical development.
“The latest outlook from NOAA for August through October, which is the peak of the season, gives the odds of El Nino at only 10%. So, it does seem unlikely we will have El Nino for the peak of this year’s season,” said Klotzbach
Let’s break down El Nino. That refers to a pattern known to bring conditions that help tear up hurricanes and keep them from forming. Enter La Nina. This is the pattern we’ve seen in the last several years and it has led to enhanced activity.
But let’s put the past few years into perspective. 2020 was the most active hurricane season on record, with 30 named storms. 2021, the third most active, with 21 named storms. And the Florida peninsula had minimal impacts.
“They certainly had some impact, but given what has been around, Florida has dodged a lot of the bullets,” said Klotzbach. “A lot of the stuff has gone a little further west, obviously Sally brought pretty significant impacts in 2020, but a lot of the other storms have gone obviously further west into Louisiana. But certainly, in an average season, especially if it’s an above average season, the odds of Florida being impacted are fairly elevated.”
The CSU forecast has a 95% chance of a named storm within 50 miles of Florida’s coastline this summer. This is about 10% above climatological average. The forecast also calls for a 71% chance of landfall for the entire U.S. coastline and 47% chance of a landfall on the U.S. east coast including the Florida penisula.
Additional updates will come June 2nd, July 7th, and August 4th.
And remember, we tell you all this to remind you to prepare now, so you do not have to panic. if a storm does come our way. As we lead up to hurricane season… FOX4 will have comprehensive coverage to help you get your family ready.
