FLORIDA — Often, it's not the immediate massive storm causing the most damage, but during a hurricane we worry about storm surge. Storm surge is when water pushed ashore causing flooding and measured in height from right where you toes would touch the water on a normal, non-storm day.
For example, 2017 Hurricane Irma produced a surge of 10 feet at Cudjoe Key. If it wasn’t for weakening at the last minute, Irma’s surge would have been even higher.
“We haven’t seen a hurricane that produced major storm surge since 1960,” said Dr. Joanne Muller, a paleoclimatologist at Florida Gulf Coast University, who specializes in studying past Southwest Florida tropical systems.
Since 1883, her research shows our region’s has only seen 5 hurricanes produced devastating, more than 10 feet high surge
“If you think of Naples for example, 5th Ave., even McGregor Blvd,” said Dr. Muller. “That sits relatively high, it’s about 10 feet. So that gives you a sense of what the flooding would be like.”
For context: if you look at data analysis firm CoreLogic’s 2020 study, a single-family home, meaning a home not attached to anything with land around it, Fort Myers ranks the sixth highest metro in the country facing a storm surge risk. It’s even higher, forth in nation, when you add in multifamily homes, like duplexes. Naples ranks 9th in both those categories.
“I think we really are highly suspectable for storm surge and I don’t think people are prepared for it,” said Dr. Muller. “I don’t think they are insured for it.”
Insurance questions, because that hurricane pushing water ashore can destroy infrastructure. National Weather Service Warning Coordinator Daniel Noah says think about a fish tank.
“…that was 3 feet squared and filled it with salt water, it would weigh 17,000 pounds,” said Noah. “And imagine that fish tank is moving at you at 20 mph, and you try and stop it. Now imagine millions of these fish tanks pushing on buildings.”
Now consider that most of Southwest Florida’s coastline being a few feet above sea level.
Dr. Muller says it is only a matter of time before that deadly storm surge happens here.
“In this day, in a warming world, it’s not unrealistic to see hurricanes that produce storm surges of 5 up to 20 feet,” said Dr. Muller. “We see it happen, nearly every season for the last decade. We are prominent hurricane area. We have just gotten really lucky.”
While we don’t know if Southwest Florida will be affected by a hurricane this summer, but it is never too early to revisit your hurricane plan and know if you are in evacuation zone.
